OCTA: NCR COVID-19 reproduction rate down to 0.58

The OCTA Research team on Sunday said the COVID-19 reproduction rate in the National Capital Region went down to 0.58 as of October 16.

This is considered low risk, and is lower than the 0.60 COVID-19 reproduction number in NCR last Thursday. 

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case.

The team also said the growth rate of new COVID-19 cases went down by 17% for the said period as compared to the week prior.

Average daily attack rate (ADAR), or the number of new daily cases per 100,000, was at 11.87 for October 10 to 16.

Healthcare utilization rate was at 44%, while ICU utilization was at 62%, both as of October 15.

Meanwhile, the average testing positivity rate from October 9 to 15 was at 10%.

The group, which analyzed data from the Department of Health's data drop, said the improving numbers were due to increased vaccination and compliance with health protocols.

Other regions

Meanwhile, Naga City and Zamboanga City are under high risk with 1.28 COVID-19 reproduction number as of October 16.

The ADAR meanwhile is highest in La Trinidad with 45.71 from October 10 to 16, considered critical.

Also considered critical in terms of ADAR are: Baguio City (43.51), San Fernando in La Union (40.19), Naga City (29.24), and Tuguegarao (25.77).

For healthcare utilization rate, La Trinidad has 94%,  Zamboanga City has 87% while Baguio City has 85%, all considered critical.

For ICU utilization, Antipolo and La Trinidad are at 100%. Also critical are General Santos (93%) and Batangas City (86%).

As for positivity rate, the following LGUs are considered critical:

• Naga City: 48%
• Tuguegarao: 44%
• Baguio City: 38%
• La Trinidad: 38%
• General Santos: 29%
• Bacolod: 27%
• Zamboanga City: 23%
• San Fernando, La Union: 23%
• Antipolo: 21%
• Tagum: 21%
• Cainta: 21%

The OCTA Research group noted that the average daily new COVID-19 cases in the country has been below 10,000 in recent days.

On Sunday the country registered 6,913 new COVID-19 infections, bringing the country's total caseload to 2,720,368, the DOH said.

The OCTA Research group said based on the trend, the Philippines may have around 5,000 to 6,000 daily new COVID-19 cases by the end of October.

The public should not be complacent but continue to follow health protocols and get vaccinated, it added. —KG, GMA News