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10 million or 220,000? No clear explanation for Nazareno crowd estimates
10 million – that round, record-setting number was the one authorities have tacked on to the Nazareno procession last Thursday, a crowd estimate that the media have tended to accept and headline.
But how did authorities come up with a number that suggests the growing influence of the Church, a gargantuan challenge for organizers and law enforcers, and an epoch-making devotion of the masses?
No one seems to know. Church officials who have bandied about the number point to the police as the origin of their estimates.
Contacted by GMA News Online, NCR police chief Carmelo Valmoria said the police have a formula for a crowd in a certain location at a particular time, like the purported three million who filled the Luneta for Cardinal Tagle's Thursday morning mass just before the 19-hour procession. Still, this is not like an arena crowd where you need only count tickets.
The crowd estimate also included the long lines of devotees who went to Quirino Grandstand for the pahalik or touching of the statue but did not take part in the procession, Valencia said in a phone interview with GMA News Online last Friday.But how did authorities come up with a number that suggests the growing influence of the Church, a gargantuan challenge for organizers and law enforcers, and an epoch-making devotion of the masses?
No one seems to know. Church officials who have bandied about the number point to the police as the origin of their estimates.
Contacted by GMA News Online, NCR police chief Carmelo Valmoria said the police have a formula for a crowd in a certain location at a particular time, like the purported three million who filled the Luneta for Cardinal Tagle's Thursday morning mass just before the 19-hour procession. Still, this is not like an arena crowd where you need only count tickets.
“We base our estimates on the size of the area and the number of people who occupy one square meter of space. If the area is too crowded, there should be six people standing on one square meter,” he said in a text message.
That formula would work for a fixed crowd in a particular location. But how about a slow-moving procession with densely packed spectators lining the route and many more watching from buildings?
“Mas madali pa kapag may rally sa Plaza Miranda, dahil yung mga tao nandoon lang. Itong mga deboto, naglalakad during the entire procession at dumadaan sa iba’t-ibang lugar. Iba-iba ang bilang namin sa bawat location,” Valmoria said.
Only 220,000 devotees?
That formula would work for a fixed crowd in a particular location. But how about a slow-moving procession with densely packed spectators lining the route and many more watching from buildings?
Only 220,000 devotees?
The National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC) estimated only 220,000 devotees taking part in the procession itself, with some 80,000 devotees attending the masses held in honor of the Black Nazarene at Quiapo Church on January 9. But again, no explanation behind the relatively modest numbers.
It turns out that the mind-boggling number of ten million was not just for the day of the procession.
Fr. Rick Valencia, parochial vicar of the Quiapo Church, explained that the figure covers attendance at a slew of Nazareno activities that began on January 1, including the novena masses for the Black Nazarene called “Pasasalamat.”
It turns out that the mind-boggling number of ten million was not just for the day of the procession.
Fr. Rick Valencia, parochial vicar of the Quiapo Church, explained that the figure covers attendance at a slew of Nazareno activities that began on January 1, including the novena masses for the Black Nazarene called “Pasasalamat.”
“The 10 million refers to the number of devotees who participated in the novena masses, the pahalik and the procession. It does not refer to the number of participants in the procession alone,” the priest clarified.
This was echoed by Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA) chairman Francis Tolentino, who placed the number of devotees who participated in the Black Nazarene festivities between 10 to 12 million.
“[The range] includes devotees who attended the pahalik of the replica and churchgoers who went to mass,” he said in a text message.
Yet, considering the significance of the crowd estimate to the history of the fiesta, no one could explain how it all added up to 10 million. Even the size of the procession itself was difficult to measure.
Yet, considering the significance of the crowd estimate to the history of the fiesta, no one could explain how it all added up to 10 million. Even the size of the procession itself was difficult to measure.
“Paiba-iba talaga ng figure ang crowd noong Nazareno [procession], dahil bawat oras may umaalis at nadadagdag. At a certain time, nasa ibang lugar rin sila kaya kailangang i-revise yung computation to take into account that particular area’s dimensions,” NCR police chief Valmoria said.
Perspective-cropping a parallelogram portion of this photot of Jones Bridge, GMA News Online counted an average of two to three people occupying an area of 60 x 59 pixels, translating to an estimated 4260 - 6390 people present in the resulting 3032 x 2487 image. Through this process, it was estimated that there were as many as 7,000 people passing through the Jones Bridge at this moment during the Traslacion procession. (Photo: Danny Pata)
Crowd estimates are obviously not neutral values for organizers and other players in an event. Huge numbers can be used to show support for a cause, or in this case devotion to the Nazareno, and by association, to a Philippine Church that has suffered its share of setbacks in recent years.
But are there ways that media and other independent sources can determine crowd estimates without relying on authorities who could have political agendas but murky formulas behind favorable numbers?
How many people in a pixel?
Sought for his view on how to calculate the number of people in a crowd, University of the Philippines School of Statistics dean Dr. Erniel Barrios suggested taking aerial photographs and computing the number of people in a certain pixel.
“Take an aerial photograph, then divide the photograph into pixels, take a few pixels (say 15-30) and count the number of people in the pixel," he wrote in an e-mail. "Then get the average of the counts in the sample pixels, and multiply this with the total number of pixels. That's the best approach that I can imagine right now."
Perspective-cropping a parallelogram portion of photographer Danny Pata's top shot of Jones Bridge (see photo above) at the height of Thursday's procession, GMA News Online counted an average of two to three people occupying an area of 60 x 59 pixels, translating to an estimated 4260-6390 people present in the resulting 3032 x 2487 image.
Another method was dividing the section into 10x10 grids, and randomly choosing sample grids for a headcount. Through this process, GMA News Online estimated that there were from 3,500 to 7,000 people passing through the Jones Bridge at the time the photo was taken.
The process Barrios suggested, though seemingly sound, can only estimate a portion of moving participants at a given moment. Those who really want to know the size of a procession would need to station themselves in a good vantage point, take photographs throughout the event, and time its duration. Then apply Barrios's formula on multiple images at various stages of the procession.
But even then, that would not account for the spectators. Besides, should mere gawkers also be considered in measuring the intensity of Manila's devotion to a sacred statue?
In the absence of more scientifically determined crowd estimates for mobile events, media is left with little choice but to quote authorities with vague methodologies. — Xianne Arcangel/ Roehl Niño Bautista/ KDM/ HS, GMA News
But even then, that would not account for the spectators. Besides, should mere gawkers also be considered in measuring the intensity of Manila's devotion to a sacred statue?
In the absence of more scientifically determined crowd estimates for mobile events, media is left with little choice but to quote authorities with vague methodologies. — Xianne Arcangel/ Roehl Niño Bautista/ KDM/ HS, GMA News
