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Egay still enhancing monsoon; flash flood, landslide warnings up in NCR, parts of Luzon this Thursday


(Updated 11:15 p.m.) Tropical cyclone Egay (international codename Linfa), although already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility, " will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains over the western section of Luzon," PAGASA said in its 11 p.m. severe weather bulletin Wednesday evening.
 
As for Typhoon Falcon which was last spotted "at 985 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes or 995 East of Itbayat, Batanes" is too far to bring any of its heavy to intense rainfall.

PAGASA said it did not issue any public storm warning for Typhoon Falcon.
 
"Estimated rainfall amount is from heavy to at times intense within the 300 km radius," PAGASA said of Falcon.
 
Weather forecasters said 130-kph-strong Typhoon Falcon "has maintained its strength as its continues to move over the Philippine Sea" in a west northwest track at 20 kph. 
 
Rainfall warnings
 
PAGASA said its Orange heavy rainfall warning is in effect over Cavite and Laguna while its Yellow alert is for Bataan, Batangas, Quezon and Rizal.
 
"Meanwhile, light to moderate rains affecting portions of ‎Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, ‎MetroManila? and Bulacan? which may persist within 3 hours," the science agency also said.
 
PAGASA also advised the "public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to monitor the weather condition and watch for the next advisory to be issued at 2:00 a.m. tommorrow."
 
Forecasters said their heavy rainfall warnings "are based on current radar trends, predicted tropical cyclone track and all available data."
 
Meanwhile, here are Typhoon Falcon's forecast positions over the next hours:
 
• 24 hour (Tomorrow evening): 615 km Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes
• 48 hour (Friday evening): Outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) or at 705 km North of Itbayat, Batanes
• 72 hour (Saturday evening): 935 km North Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (Outside PAR)

State weather forecasters on Wednesday warned residents of Metro Manila and nearby areas in Western Luzon to be wary of heavy rains and flash floods even though no storm warnings have been raised.
 
The enhanced monsoon rains may trigger flash floods and landslides in Metro Manila and nearby parts of Luzon on Thursday, state weather agency PAGASA said Wednesday afternoon.

"Maraming panganib na dala po itong Habagat kahit hindi natin nararamdaman ang epekto ni Typhoon Falcon," warned GMA resident meteorologist Nathaniel "Mang Tani" Cruz.

No landfall, but heavy rains nonetheless
 
"Bumabaybay ngayon sa dagat si Falcon pero kahit alam nating wala tayong public storm signal, huwag pa rin tayo makampante," said PAGASA forecaster Trick Moreno Hizon in a televised interview on Wednesday.

"Ang Habagat ang magiging dominant weather system na mag-aapekto sa Luzon at sa Western Visayas," he added.
 
As of 4 p.m., Falcon was estimated at 1,065 km east of Basco, Batanes, with maximum winds of 130 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 160 kph. It is forecast to move west-northwest at 20 kph, and may enhance the Southwest Monsoon affecting Luzon and Western Visayas.
 
On Thursday, PAGASA said enhanced monsoon rains may trigger flash floods and landslides over:
 
- Ilocos
- Central Luzon
- Metro Manila
- Calabarzon
- Mimaropa
 
Occasional rain may be expected in Western Visayas, while partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms may prevail over the rest of the country.
 
Moderate to strong winds from the southwest will prevail over the archipelago with moderate to rough seas.

Falcon is expected to leave the PAR by Friday, but its effects on the monsoon may still be felt over the weekend.

Dam water levels rising

Because of Falcon's lingering effects, water levels in five major Luzon dams including Angat Dam in Bulacan went up Wednesday due to continuous heavy rain.
 
Earlier, at 6 a.m., PAGASA said water levels at Angat, which supplies more than 90 percent of Metro Manila's water needs, went up to 169.62 meters.
 
This was 0.14 meter higher than the 169.48 meters on Tuesday, but still below the 180-meter critical level for irrigation.
 
PAGASA said water levels went up in four other major Luzon dams, including:
 
- Ipo: 100.54 from 100.39 meters Tuesday
- La Mesa: 79.53 from 79.38 meters Tuesday
- Ambuklao: 747.77 from 746.74 meters Tuesday
- San Roque: 235.38 from 234.84 meters Tuesday
 
However, water levels in four other dams went down, including:
- Binga: 574.14 from 574.19 meters Tuesday
- Pantabangan: 178.65 from 178.97 meters Tuesday
- Magat: 176.17 from 176.37 meters Tuesday
- Caliraya: 287.7 from 287.82 meters Tuesday

La Mesa Dam close to overflowing

Amid heavy rainfall due to the enhanced southwest monsoon, the La Mesa Dam in Quezon City inched closer to its spilling level on Wednesday afternoon.
 
According to PAGASA's dams water level update at 4 p.m., La Mesa Dam is at 79.72 meters, only 0.28 meters away from its spilling level of 80 meters.
 
PAGASA hydrologist Edgar dela Cruz urged people who may be affected by the rising water level to evacuate as soon as possible, before it gets dark.
 
"Kung patuloy pa rin tonight until tomorrow, it will hit the spill level between 7 and 8 AM," dela Cruz said in an interview with QRT newscast.
 
The dam's overflow level is at 80.15 meters.
 
Dela Cruz said that since 4 p.m., the dam's water level has risen at an average of three centimeters per hour.

Monitoring TS Nangka

Although there is no immediate cause for alarm yet, PAGASA is monitoring another disturbance in the Pacific that may cross into the PAR next week. If it does so, it will take on the local codename "Goring".

TS Langka is not forecast to make landfall in the Philippines, but there is a small chance it may track towards Taiwan next week. If so, then it may also be expected to continue enhancing the southwest monsoon in the wake of Falcon.

"Tinitignan pa rin natin kung papasok sa PAR si Nangka. Medyo hindi sya kasing lakas ni Falcon, pero may epekto pa rin sya sa Habagat," Mang Tani explained. — with Joel Locsin/TJDELR, GMA News

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