NBA Western Conference Finals preview: #2 San Antonio Spurs vs #5 Memphis Grizzlies

Regular season series: Tied 2-2

• December 1: Grizzlies 95-99 @Spurs (OT)
• January 11: Spurs 98-101 @Grizzlies (OT)
• January 16: Grizzlies 82-103 @Spurs
• April 1: Spurs 90-92 @Grizzlies

Television ratings? The only thing that matters in this series will be defensive ratings.

Tim Duncan looks to end the longest Finals drought of his career since entering the league in 1997. Vaulting over the inexperienced but resilient Golden State Warriors in six games, the San Antonio Spurs are in familiar territory, making their eighth appearance in the Western Conference Finals in the last 15 seasons.

Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies are basking in the glory of their first Western Conference Finals appearance since they joined the league in 1995 via the frigid winters of Vancouver. Their season extends beyond mid-May for the first time in franchise history after they took down the defending Western Conference champs Oklahoma City Thunder in a five-game toss-up where games one through four could have gone either way.

The Spurs and Grizzlies will face each other for the third time in the postseason. In 2004, the Spurs spoiled the Grizzlies’ playoff debut, quickly dispatching them in four games. In 2011, the tables turned, as the Grizzlies became only the third eighth-seeded team to stun the top seed, knocking out the Spurs in six.

However, history serves as a shaky point of reference. In that 2011 tussle, the Spurs started the likes of Antonio McDyess and Richard Jefferson, who no longer wear silver and black this season. Manu Ginobili was also unable to see action in that series due to a right elbow injury that he suffered in the Spurs’ regular season finale. In addition, O.J. Mayo was still the first guy off the bench for the Grizzlies.

The regular season does not serve as a reliable barometer as well. In three of their four regular season meetings, Rudy Gay still saw action before he was traded for Tayshaun Prince and Austin Daye in a blockbuster package. The only sample that the Spurs and Grizzlies can refer to was their most recent match-up. The highlight of that game saw Mike Conley drive past Danny Green to sink a game-winning lefty lay-up with 0.6 seconds remaining to give the Grizzlies a two-point victory.

Three Grizzlies got All-Defensive Team nods this year in Marc Gasol, who also won the Defensive Player of the Year Award, Tony Allen, and Conley. Gasol had been the best big man among all the teams in the playoffs, and with a range that stretches out to almost 20-feet, he has a high post game that the Grizzlies can turn to should the Spurs camp down low with a zone defense in the shaded area.

Tony Allen has already solidified his reputation as a lockdown defender, and for all those who remain skeptical, he brought Kevin Durant back to earth, holding the OKC superstar to a listless 31.2 percent shooting in the last two games of the series. Allen will see a huge chunk of minutes staying in front of Tony Parker, who is still recovering from a leg and ankle injury that he sustained over the past few weeks. Against Gary Neal, Ginobili, and Green, who run fewer isolation plays, Allen will be able to contain these three guards easily.

Conley has been the biggest revelation of the playoffs and he has lived up to the much-scrutinized $45 million, five-year contract extension he was signed to in 2010. Memphis coach Lionel Hollins has entrusted Conley as the fulcrum of a Memphis offense anchored on two post players. Paired alongside Allen or Quincy Pondexter, Conley will provide a mighty challenge for Parker, who needs to stop the former from getting into the paint for patented teardrop runners. Next to Jerryd Bayless, Conley has a running mate who spreads the floor and provides a different wrinkle on offense.

The player who cannot be overlooked in this series is Zach Randolph. Though the Spurs have played against Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bogut, they have not matched-up against anyone who is in Randolph’s caliber when it comes to physicality. As seen clearly during his pseudo-wrestling matches with Blake Griffin, Randolph will establish his territory until it frustrates the man guarding him. With averages of 19.7 points and 9.2 rebounds through 11 playoff games, Randolph must stay involved in Memphis’ flow of offense.

Spurs coach Gregg Popovich will have to find a way of sharing the front court burden with the likes of Tiago Splitter and Boris Diaw and not running Duncan to the ground. Splitter has been a huge question mark up front, only averaging 4.7 points and 4.0 rebounds in his first seven playoff games before scoring a career playoff-high 14 in the series-clinching game six victory against the Warriors. Diaw meanwhile is not yet 100 percent as he continues to recover from the spine cyst he sustained against the Lakers in the first round.

Kawhi Leonard has been the Spurs’ third-best player behind Duncan and Parker. In six games against the Warriors, Leonard averaged a shade under 15 points and 10 rebounds. The sophomore was a nightmarish match-up for fellow second-year player Klay Thompson, erasing the Warriors’ second-best shooter out of the equation after game two. That switch allowed the rest of the Spurs to gang up on Stephen Curry more effectively.  

Danny Green will have a two-fold role in this series, which is to limit Conley’s forays, while finding himself open for corner threes. Speaking of which, San Antonio’s corner three has been money through the regular season and playoffs, where the team shot over 48 percent in four meetings against Memphis. To strengthen this advantage, Matt Bonner could even see significant playing time to stretch the floor and open up the lane for Parker and Ginobili to drive to the basket.

The Grizzlies have handled adversity very well through the postseason. They could have easily folded when Chris Paul’s buzzer-beater put them in a 0-2 hole against the Clippers. They could have called it quits when Durant’s game-winner made them go 0-1 against the Thunder. But they took those setbacks in stride and recovered their bearings each time.

San Antonio has been here before, but Memphis has delivered aggressively with backs against the wall. When all is said and done, the Spurs will be the one singing the blues.

Prediction: Grizzlies in 6