NCR's COVID-19 case growth rate down to 2%; either peaking or testing limited —OCTA

The National Capital Region (NCR) recorded a 2% COVID-19 case growth rate of the seven-day average on Saturday which means its new cases are close to the peak or it is limited by testing capacity, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said.

In a tweet on Sunday, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said NCR reported 18,422 new infections on Saturday which is within their range of expectations.

With this, the region’s daily growth rate of the seven-day average decreased to 2% as compared to the 3% recorded

David said this downtrend in growth rate could have two possible reasons—either the NCR’s trend of new cases is close to the peak or the volume of testing is “not sufficient” given the number of new cases.

“If new cases start to decrease in the NCR over the next week, then it is the first case,” David noted.

“In the second case, we will see the number of new cases continue to hover around the same level, until the downward trend happens,” he added.

However, the Department of Health (DOH) on Saturday said active COVID-19 cases in the NCR are projected to double by the second week of February, as it reiterated that the surge in the region was not expected to peak till the end of January or as late as the second week of February. 

DOTr random testing

In a separate tweet, David said that NCR COVID-19 cases may be six to 15 times higher than the official numbers reported by health authorities.

This statement was based on the random antigen tests conducted by the Department of Transportation (DOTr) on Wednesday and Thursday among randomly-chosen railway passengers, among whom 57 tested positive for COVID-19.

On January 12, 34 passengers yielded positive antigen results out of 233 tested at the MRT-3, LRT-1, LRT-2, and PNR.

Meanwhile, on January 13, 23 railway passengers tested positive out of 228 tested.

This then resulted in a 12.4% positivity rate in the NCR, OCTA noted.

“Assuming NCR population of 14 million, then the margin of error is ±5%, with 95% confidence interval, for a prevalence range of 7.4 to 17.4%. Comparing with the NCR population, this gives us a range of about 1.04 to 2.44 million people infected with SARS-CoV2 as of January 13,” David said.

He cited that the DOH data recorded about 165,000 new reported cases in Metro Manila from January 1 to 14, 2022.

“This means that the actual number of cases, which include asymptomatic and symptomatic cases not tested, and those tested with antigen but not reported, could be 6 to 15 times higher than the official numbers reported by DOH, within a 95% confidence interval,” David added.

Some 30% of residents in the NCR are not yet vaccinated against COVID-19.

The government maintained the Alert Level 3 hoisted in NCR until the end of January.

Under Alert Level 3, several establishments will be allowed to operate at 30% indoor venue capacity but exclusively for fully vaccinated people, and 50% outdoor venue capacity as long as employees are fully vaccinated.

The DOH on Saturday recorded another record-high 39,004 COVID-19 infections, bringing the country’s caseload to 3,168,379. —KG, GMA News