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Average new COVID-19 cases in NCR down 27% —OCTA Research

The average daily new COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region decreased by 27% to 1,479 for the May 10-16 period, according to the latest bulletin by OCTA Research.

The same bulletin said the reproduction number in the NCR for the period was 0.57 while the positive rate decreased to 11%. A reproduction number of one or higher is an indication of the continuous transmission of the virus.

Average attack rate (ADAR) in NCR, meanwhile, was at 10.71 per 100,000 -- still considered "high risk" by the government.

"[Department of Health] considers ADAR above 10 as high risk while an ADAR below 10 is classified as moderate risk," OCTA Research said.

Based on DOH guidelines, seven local government units (LGUs) are classified as moderate risk -- Navotas, Malabon, Manila, Taguig, Caloocan, Pasay and Muntinlupa.


Health utilization rate (HCUR) in the NCR as of May 15 was 45%, according to OCTA, with an intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy of 57%.

"DOH considers less than 60% utilization as safe," OCTA Research said.

As far as HCUR is concerned, 14 LGUs are classified as safe.

NCR and the four adjacent provinces of Laguna, Bulacan, Cavite and Rizal were placed under the strictest enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in late March due to the surge in COVID-19 cases that saw hospitals swamped with patients.

The classification was downgraded to modified ECQ. At present, the four areas, collectively known as NCR Plus, are under general community quarantine (GCQ) with "heightened restrictions" -- a classification that will last until the end of May.

In GCQ areas, entertainment venues, such as bars, concert halls, theaters, etc; recreational venues, such as internet cafes, billiards halls, arcades, etc; amusement parks, fairs, playgrounds, kiddie rides; indoor sports courts and venues and indoor tourist attractions; and venues for meetings, conferences, exhibitions are not allowed to operate.  --KBK, GMA News