COVID-19 cases outside NCR Plus up by 200% in 8 days —OCTA

Though there is a decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR), new cases outside NCR Plus have increased by 200% in eight days, OCTA Research said Friday.

OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said cases outside NCR increased from less than 4,000 on January 12 to almost 12,000 as of January 20.

“Although there’s a noticeable downward trajectory in the NCR and possibly in Region IV-A and parts of Region IV-A, there’s now an upward trajectory in other parts of the country,” David said during the Go Negosyo briefing.

David said this should not be surprising as the wave has "spread out" into other parts of the country.

In Cebu City, a major city in the country, David projected that new COVID-19 cases may peak at less than 1,000 cases.

“They’re definitely on an increasing trend, it’s not yet peaking. But based on the projections, it may actually peak around less than 1,000 cases. Sometime by the end of January, based on the projections,” he said.

He said Cebu had only around 300 cases at maximum during the Delta surge last year.

At present, the National Capital Region's reproduction number is at 1.58. Reproduction number refers to the number of people infected by one case.

The region has an average daily attack rate of 94 per 100,000 population while its healthcare utilization rate is at moderate risk of 58%. Meanwhile, its weekly COVID-19 growth rate decreased to -20% from -10%

NCR remains at critical risk for COVID-19, according to David.

Projections

David said cases may decrease to around 3,000 to 2,000 per day in NCR by the end of January and less than 1,000 by Valentines' Day.

Cases may also further decrease to less than 500 by the end of February, he said.

“Again, these are very rough projections. We hope to, it can be used to guide some of our friends in the business sectors and even in the government,” he said.

David said the decrease is “nearly as rapid” as the increase during the surge.

“To sustain the rapid decrease, I would say that downgrading the alert level at this time might not be advisable, just to sustain the rapid decrease that we’re seeing,” he said.

The Philippines on Thursday logged 31,173 new COVID-19 cases. —KBK, GMA News