OCTA eyes possibility of Omicron wave ending by March

Independent monitoring group OCTA Research said on Monday that they were hopeful that the Omicron COVID-19 variant surge would end by March or April this year.

During a Laging Handa briefing, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said that the Omicron wave may last longer as it is only starting in other regions compared to the National Capital Region (NCR) where the growth and reproduction rates were decreasing.

“Medyo matatagalan ‘yung Omicron wave kasi kahit na medyo bumababa na sa NCR, Cavite, Rizal, pataas pa lang sa ibang lugar at may mga lugar na hindi pa nagkakaron ng pagtaas eh,” he said.

(The Omicron wave will last longer because even if the cases are decreasing in NCR and adjacent provinces, the cases are still increasing in other areas while others have not yet experienced it.)

Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said Monday that new daily COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila had peaked given the decline in the number of infections reported over the past few days.

“We are hoping na by around March to April ay tapos na ‘yung Omicron wave sa buong bansa natin, which means baka makikita natin na less than 1,000 cases per day, pero hindi pa guaranteed ‘yon,” David said.

(We are hoping that the Omicron wave all over the country will end around March to April. We may then see less than 1,000 cases per day, but this is still not guaranteed.)

The National Capital Region (NCR) and at least 50 other areas were placed under an Alert Level 3 until the end of January.

Duque said the alert level in NCR may be downgraded to Alert Level 2 should it meet the criteria set by the government, such as the criteria for the healthcare utilization rate.

David said that this could be possible by mid-February if the downward trend of cases in the region continued.

“Sa nakikita ko ngayon, kung nasa 2,000 cases per day pa tayo by first week of February, baka masyadong pang premature naibaba agad to Alert Level 2. Siguro baka mid-February earliest ma-consider seriously na ibaba to Alert Level 2,” he said.

(If the cases remained at 2,000 per day by the first week of February, maybe easing to Alert Level 2 would be premature. We could seriously consider it by mid-February.)

Despite the decreasing COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila, David noted that the people would not want a resurgence of cases and have their lives affected again if the government would prematurely ease the NCR's quarantine status.

“Mas mabuting siguraduhin na nating bumaba at bumagsak ‘yung bilang ng kaso katulad nung nakita natin nung October, November to December siguro bago tayo magluwag,” he added.

(It would be better if we see fewer and a drop in the number of cases like what we saw in October to December last year before we ease the restrictions.)

— DVM, GMA News