OCTA: NCR low risk for COVID-19 in a week or two

The National Capital Region (NCR) which is classified as moderate risk for COVID-19, is expected to further downgrade in the coming weeks, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said on Tuesday.

Interviewed on state-run PTV’s Laging Handa, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said, “Ang projection namin baka within one to two weeks nasa low risk na.”

(Our projection is that within one to two weeks it will be at low risk.)

“Hinihintay lang natin basically na bumaba ‘yung positivity rate around less than 10% and ‘yung ADAR (average daily attack rate) to less than 10% at bumaba pa yung hospital utilization,” David said.

(We are waiting for the positivity and ADAR to go down to less than 10% as well as the hospital utilization rate to go down further.)

The OCTA Research fellow said that NCR's positivity rate is currently at 17% and the ADAR is at 19.58%

Metro Manila and seven other areas reverted to Alert Level 1 beginning February 1 until February 15.

Under Alert Level 2 — the second lowest in the new alert level system — certain establishments and activities are allowed at 50% capacity indoors for fully vaccinated adults (and minors, even if unvaccinated), and 70% capacity outdoors.

Also under Alert Level 2, the implementation of the " no vaccination, no ride" policy barring unvaccinated people in Metro Manila from boarding public transport will be suspended, the Department of Transportation earlier said.

David said that while OCTA Research respects the government’s decision to relax the alert level in NCR, “ang personal opinion ko lang na baka pwedeng nahintay natin na bumaba nang kaunti pa ‘yung positivity rate, kasi mataas pa nasa 17% pa, pero bumababa naman (my personal opinion is that we should have waited the positivity rate to go down further because it’s still high at 17%, but is already going down).”

Nonetheless, he said that in one to two weeks the positivity rate in NCR could go down to less than 10%. —NB, GMA News