OCTA’s David: Rise in COVID-19 cases in 14 areas not leading to a surge yet

The increase in COVID-19 infections in 14 areas may only be an uptick and does not indicate yet that another surge is forthcoming, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said Wednesday.

At the Laging Handa press briefing, David explained that they could not yet distinguish if such an uptick is only just a “statistical noise” or an actual increase as the recorded new COVID-19 cases are still very low.

“Totoo na may tumataas na cases pero ‘yung pagtaas ng cases na ito at a very low level pa sila sa ngayon. Hindi naman natin sinasabi na forever ‘yan, pwedeng magbago, pero sa ngayon, ayan ‘yung nakikita natin,” he said. 

(It is true that there are increasing cases, but this increase is still at a very low level now. We are not saying that this is forever as it can change, but for now, that is what we see.)

“Sa ngayon, it looks like mga upticks pa lang ito at hindi pa naman siya leading to a surge sa ngayon (right now, it looks like these are just upticks and not leading to a surge yet),” he added.

On Monday, Health Secretary Francisco Duque III reported the COVID-19 situation in several areas in light of the Catholic observance of Holy Week, the Muslims' holy month of Ramadan, and the ongoing Eleksyon 2022 campaign.

However, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that such a report is not a cause for concern as it had no effect on the areas’ hospital utilization and bed utilization rates.

She added that Region 4B, Region III, Region XI, Caraga, Region 1, Region 2, CAR, and Region 8 only had a slight increase and their one-week growth rate went positive because some of them had zero cases recently.

“Kung tumaas siya for one week lang, hindi naman siya significant. Pero kung patuloy na tumataas, two weeks or three weeks, tapos malaki ‘yung tinataas niya talaga, then we start to become concerned and ‘yun irereport natin talaga,” David said.

(If the cases increase for just one week, it is not significant. But if it continues to rise in two or three weeks, and the increase is really big, then we will start to become concerned and we will really report that.)

Average Daily Attack Rate

In a tweet, David showed that the National Capital Region (NCR) had the highest average daily attack rate (ADAR) in the country with 0.60 as of Tuesday, April 19.

He, however, reminded that the 0.60 ADAR is still below 1 and is thus considered as “very low risk.” He noted that the ADAR in the NCR in January this year exceeded 100.

ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

According to OCTA, the areas with the highest ADAR next to NCR were South Cotabato, Bataan, Iloilo, Cavite, Davao de Oro, Davao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Pampanga, Ilocos Norte, Tarlac, and Zamboanga del Sur.

David also reminded the public, amid the warning of the Department of Health and the World Health Organization Philippines of a possible COVID-19 surge by mid-May if health protocols are continuously ignored, to get the primary vaccine series and booster shots, and comply with the minimum public health standards.

The Philippines on Tuesday reported 158 fresh COVID-19 cases, the lowest daily tally this year. This brings the country’s caseload to 3,683,367.

The total recoveries climbed to 3,604,570, while nationwide death toll increased to 59,982. — RSJ, GMA News