OCTA: Lockdowns amid possible COVID-19 surge not recommended

The OCTA Research group on Tuesday said it does not recommend the  reimposition of lockdowns despite projecting an increase in COVID-19 infections from 50,000 to 100,000 active cases soon.

During a Laging Handa briefing, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David reiterated it is likely that the Philippines may also see a rise in cases in other countries like South Africa and India.

He earlier noted that the cause of rise in COVID-19 cases in South Africa was the two new sub-variants of the highly transmissible Omicron variant BA.4 and BA.5, while in India, it was the new Omicron sublineage the BA 2.12.

Despite this, David explained that they do not currently see lockdowns fit considering that they support the government with its economic recovery.

“Hindi pa naman natin kinakailangang maghigpit masyado especially sa ating mga borders dahil gusto nga nating matulungan ang ekonomiya, ‘yung ating tourism na nagfo-flourish na ngayon,” he said.

(We don’t have too much restriction especially on our borders because we really want to help the economy and our tourism that are flourishing now.)

David also asked the public not to overreact about the possible surge as this could still be managed with continuous compliance of the minimum public health standards, on top of getting the primary COVID-19 vaccine series and booster shots, especially among the vulnerable sectors.

This was also echoed by OCTA Research fellow Dr. Ranjit Rye, calling the government to already “vaxx to the max.”

“Sa ngayon, preventive ‘yung initiative namin. We’re trying to provide data to say that there is a possibility of an uptick, and maybe a surge. Wala hong rekomendasyon ang OCTA to lock down (OCTA doesn’t have a recommendation of a lockdown). We believe that what may happen in the next few weeks is manageable po given our existing capabilities,” he said.

The DOH earlier reported that a 50% decrease in the compliance of minimum public health standards in the National Capital Region may result in 25,000 to 60,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by mid-May.

Meanwhile, a 20% decrease in MPHS compliance nationwide may lead to around 34,788 active COVID-19 cases, and a 30% decrease in MPHS compliance might increase the cases further, possibly to as high as 300,000, over the same period, the DOH said.—LDF, GMA News