NCR COVID-19 reproduction number increased to 1.05 —OCTA fellow

The COVID-19 reproduction number of the National Capital Region slightly increased to 1.05, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said Tuesday.

The reproduction number refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

Despite this, OCTA fellow Guido David assured the public that this does not necessarily mean cases will surge.

However, he also noted that the last two times the reproduction number increased to more than 1 was during the start of the surges caused by the more transmissible Omicron and Delta variants.

“Over the next few weeks, the best case scenario is status quo, while the worst case scenario, based on currently available data, is a weak surge in COVID-19 cases,” David said in a tweet.

David previously said the slight increase in COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila and other areas was caused by the more transmissible Omicron subvariants and not due to activities related to the May 9 elections.

The country recently detected the Omicron subvariant BA.4 from a Filipino who flew in from the Middle East on May 4. A week ago, the country also detected the local transmission of the Omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1.

Despite this, the country and most of its regions remain under the minimal risk case classification against COVID-19, according to the Department of Health.

Meanwhile, David said the average daily attack rate remained very low at 0.52 while the positivity rate was recorded at 1.2%, still meeting the benchmark of the World Health Organization.

In an interview on Super Radyo dzBB, David said the good news is that the cases recorded are only experiencing mild symptoms.

“Yes, ‘yun ‘yung magandang balita. Nakita rin natin ito nung January. At dahil itong mga subvariant na ito ay Omicron pa rin sila, ang presentation pa rin nila ay mild pa rin sila, especially kung bakunado,” he said.

(Yes, that’s the good news. We also saw this in January. And because these subvariants are Omicron, the presentation of cases is still mild, especially if they are vaccinated.)

He urged the public to get vaccinated and for those eligible to get their boosters.—AOL, GMA News