OCTA: NCR positivity rate remains at 14%

The COVID-19 positivity rate of the National Capital Region (NCR) remained at around 14%, according to independent monitoring group OCTA Research on Monday.

OCTA fellow Guido David said the positivity rate was recorded at 14.1%. David previously said the positivity rate in the region was 14.6% as of July 20.

The positivity rate refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested.

Meanwhile, David said the region’s one-week growth rate remained at 25%.

“‘Yung weekly growth rate… two weeks ago bumababa na siya around 23% so akala namin noon baka malapit na mag peak, pero nag maintain siya at around 25%,” he said at the Laging Handa briefing.

(The weekly growth rate… two weeks ago it decreased to around 23% so we thought maybe we are about to reach the peak, but it remains at around 25%.)

According to David, the region’s reproduction number was 1.38, similar to last week.

The reproduction number refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

“May mga possibilities na baka ‘yung pagka complacency natin ay naka contribute sa pag prolong ng wave na ito kasi in-expect natin mga 2 months lang itong wave na ito… pero ngayon mag 2 months na wala pa tayo sa peak,” he said.

(There are several possibilities. Maybe our complacency contributed to the prolonged wave because we were expecting that it would last only 2 months, but we’re about to reach 2 months and we have yet to reach the peak.)

“So isang possibility pa ay ‘yung maraming sub-variants na kumakalat. ‘Yung Omicron BA.5, BA.4, at ‘yung BA.2.12.1, at hindi natin masabi kung nakapasok na ‘yung BA.2.75,” he added.

(The other possibility is the subvariants that are spreading, the Omicron BA.5, BA.4, and the BA.2.12.1, and we can’t say if the BA.2.75 has arrived.)  

David said that though the country has yet to detect the BA.2.75 or the Centaurus subvariant, there was a possibility that it was already here.

“Sa ngayon, ‘yung projection natin, medyo similar sa nakikita, sa nararamdaman nating wave ngayon na hindi ganon kataas ‘yung bilang ng kaso pero tataas pa rin. Baka umabot tayo ng a few thousand cases na kung sakaling makapasok nga itong Centaurus subvariant,” he said.

(We project a similar wave to the current one where cases will increase but it won’t be that much. Maybe we’ll reach a few thousand cases in case the Centaurus subvariant enters the country.)

“Or possibly baka nakapasok na pero hindi pa natin nakikita siya nade-detect kasi hindi naman full ‘yung ating genome sequencing,” he added.

(Or possibly it is already here and we just haven’t detected it because our genome sequencing is not that complete.)

In a tweet, he said Metro Manila was at moderate risk for COVID-19 as it recorded an average daily attack rate of 7.17 per 100,000 individuals.

“Overall, the NCR was at moderate risk. With a flat growth rate, it is not clear at this time when the peak in cases in the NCR will occur,” he said.

Meanwhile, he said the country may record 4,000 new cases per day by next week.

“it’s possible na baka umabot ng 4,000 cases per day by next week sa buong bansa. Pero again projections lang naman ‘yan. Sa nakikita naman natin ayun nga, hindi naman ganon kabilis ‘yung pagdami ng kaso kaya hindi naman alarming siya,” he said.

(But, again, these are just projections. As far as we can tell cases aren't increasing that fast so this isn't alarming.)

SONA

David also said President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. should prioritize the economy, livelihood, and food security during his first State of the Nation Address.

“Pero sa COVID natin, we’ve been managing it well over the past months in 2022. Hindi na tayo nag la-lockdown, hindi na tayo bumabalik sa ganoon,” he said.

(As for our COVID, we’ve been managing it well over the past months in 2022. We’re no longer implementing lockdowns.)

David hoped that Marcos would address the country’s health capacities and systems as well as the concerns of medical frontliners, among which were  issues on wages. — DVM, GMA News