Metro Manila COVID-19 positivity rate rises to 15.6% —OCTA

The weekly positivity rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) has increased to 15.6% from 13.3% on September 10 and 14.5% on September 14, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said Monday.

According to Lei Alviz’s report on “24 Oras,” positivity rates in the nearby provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Rizal, and Laguna have likewise increased.

The positivity rate refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested. The World Health Organization's threshold for a positivity rate being too high is 5%.

“Nag-peak na ‘yung cases noong August 7. And then bumababa na siya sa karamihan ng mga provinces sa Philippines and that includes Cebu, Davao, and northern provinces. Pero sa Metro Manila, nakakita tayo ng pagtaas uli ng positivity rate at ng cases that confirms na baka... medyo tumataas na yung trend of cases, hindi sa buong Philippines pero in a few areas around Metro Manila,” OCTA Research fellow Guido David said.

(The cases peaked on August 7, then are now decreasing in many provinces, including Cebu, Davao, and the northern provinces. But in Metro Manila, we are seeing a rise in the positivity rate and cases again. It confirms...the trend in cases is increasing again, not in the whole country but in a few areas around Metro Manila.)

“‘Yung increase in cases actually, medyo kasabay siya ng start ng face-to-face classes, parang ganoon, pero of course, some might point out bakit hindi tumataas all over the Philippines? Well, it might be just ano, dahil sa increased mobility mas maraming tao ang lumabas and maybe complacency din,” he said.

(The increase coincided with the start of face-to-face classes. Of course, some might point out why not all over the Philippines? Well, it might just be due to the increased mobility and complacency.)

Difference in estimates

The Department of Health (DOH) reported that the number of average daily cases in Metro Manila in the past week was 950. However, David said that Octa's estimate places the average at around 16,000 per day.

“Mga ganoon kataas 'yung estimate namin. It could even be higher, pero sabihin natin, 17 to 18,000. That means it’s about 20 times higher than what's being reported by the DOH. Ganoon karami ang nagpapa-antigen testing lang, home testing or hindi na nagpapa-test,” he said.

(That’s our estimate. It can even be higher, let’s say 17,000 to 18,000. That means it’s about 20 times higher than what's being reported by the DOH. That’s how many people are just taking antigen tests, home tests, or not even undergoing any tests.)

Last week, the World Health Organization (WHO) said the end of the pandemic is “in sight.” This was echoed by US President Joe Biden who said the COVID-19 pandemic is “over.”

However, infectious disease expert Dr. Rontgene Solante believes the pandemic is not yet over in the Philippines.

“Sa ngayon, hindi ko pa nakikita na ‘yung ganoong pananaw. Because although mas mababa ang mga kaso natin ngayon kumpara noon January or September last year pero tuloy-tuloy pa rin na mayroon tayong community transmissions especially with this BA.5 variant,” said Solante.

(Right now, I cannot share their view. Because although our cases are lower than the reported cases in January or September last year, the community transmission is still continuous, especially with this BA.5 variant.)

“Kung matatanaw man natin, hindi pa siguro within the next two or three months,” he added.

(If we can see it, maybe not in the next two to three months.) — Sundy Locus/BM, GMA News