OCTA: NCR new COVID-19 cases on 'downward trend'

New COVID-19 infections in the National Capital Region (NCR) have been declining since the start of October, as do the region’s indicators of the viral disease, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said Wednesday.

In a tweet, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David reported that NCR’s new COVID-19 cases went down from 1,719 on October 1 to 248 on October 25.

With this, the seven-day average of new cases also decreased from 807 from October 12-18 to 491 from October 19-25.

NCR's one-week growth rate of infections dipped at -39% from the previous -7%, OCTA said.

Its reproduction number, meanwhile, also declined from 0.98 on October 15 to 0.74 on October 25.

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

NCR’s seven-day positivity rate — or the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested — also decreased from 14.6% on October 17 to 11.6% on October 24.

Its healthcare utilization rate, on the other hand, remained “low” as it further went down to 29% on October 24 from last week’s 35%.

NCR's intensive care unit occupancy was also still “low” at 23%.

David reiterated that the recently detected Omicron XBB subvariant may have caused the increase in COVID-19 cases in the NCR last month.

"In analyzing the trends and the available data, it seems that the June 2022 wave in the NCR was driven by the Omicron BA.5, while the subsequent wave from September may have been driven by the XBB or XBC," he said.

"Hopefully, the downward trend continues until the December holidays, but there is uncertainty in the trends because of the presence of other subvariants around the world," he added.

Daily COVID-19 cases in the Philippines dropped to a three-month low on Tuesday, bringing the active caseload down to 21,924. —Giselle Ombay/KBK, GMA News