OCTA: Rizal sees spike in COVID-19 cases with 47% growth rate

Rizal is now seeing a spike in new COVID-19 cases with its growth rate increasing from -15% to 47% in a span of one week, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said Monday.

OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said the seven-day average of COVID-19 infections in Rizal went from 84 as of August 29 to September 4, to 124 as of September 5 to 11.

On September 9 alone, Rizal recorded 228 fresh COVID-19 cases —higher than its previous peak of 203 during the current wave of infections.

“Sa Rizal, may clustering of cases tayong nakikita. Mino-monitor natin ‘yan kung magtutuloy-tuloy. Sana naman hindi,” David said in a Super Radyo dzBB interview.

(We see a clustering of cases in Rizal. We will monitor that if it continues, but I hope not.)

Aside from the COVID-19 growth rate, OCTA said the province also had an increase in the reproduction number of the coronavirus from 0.90 on September 1, to 1.25 on September 8.

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is greater than 1 indicates that infections are increasing.

Rizal’s positivity rate—or the number of people found positive for COVID-19 against the total number of individuals tested—also jumped to 17.4% on September 10, from 12% on September 3.

“The increase in positivity rate indicated that the spike is not due to backlog,” David said, attributing the rising COVID-19 cases in the province to the increased mobility of the people.

“Ang alam natin, tumaas ang mobility. ‘Pag tumataas ang mobility, posibleng dumami ang hawaan,” he said.

(We know that mobility has increased. When mobility increases, it is possible that there will be more infections.)

Despite this, David pointed out that Rizal’s average daily attack rate (ADAR) was still considered “low” at 3.73.

Its intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy was also “low” at 5%, while its healthcare utilization for COVID-19 was “moderate” at 50.8%.

Aside from Rizal, David said Sunday that OCTA is also seeing a slow uptick in COVID-19 infections in the National Capital Region as indicated in the increases in its reproduction number and positivity rate as well.

The Department of Health (DOH) on Sunday recorded 2,230 new COVID-19 cases, increasing the total nationwide caseload to 3,906,269.

DOH data also showed that the country’s active cases slightly decreased to 25,684 from 26,074 on Saturday. This is the 15th straight day with fewer than 30,000 active infections.

The number of recoveries climbed to 3,818,281 while the death toll rose by 16 to 62,304. —KG, GMA News