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Moody’s lowers 2021 Philippine economic growth forecast
By JON VIKTOR D. CABUENAS, GMA NewsMoody’s Investors Service has downgraded its economic growth forecast for the Philippines, noting that the rebound would rely on efforts against the COVID-19 pandemic and the vaccination rollout.
In a research note released Wednesday, Moody’s said it now expects the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5.8% this year, slower than the 7% forecast in a report released in January.
This is also below the government’s economic growth target range of 6.0% to 7.0%,
which has been revised downward several times, the last being 6.5% to 7.5%.“Despite the historically large economic contraction in 2020, we expect the recovery to restore rapid economic growth relative to peers,” Moody’s said.
“However, the degree and pace of recovery are subject to uncertainties related to the coronavirus pandemic, as well as the progress on vaccination,” it added.
For 2022, Moody’s expects the Philippine economy to grow by 6.5%.
The Philippines on Tuesday, July 20, reported 4,516 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 to bring the total to 1,517,903. This includes 48,806 active cases; 1444,253 recoveries; and 26,844 deaths.
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The country has received some 26.493 million COVID-19 vaccine doses as of July 17, of which some 15.096 were administered as of July 18.
“Recent containment measures imposed since March 2021, although more lenient than the severe lockdowns imposed in 2020, will threaten our expectation of a sharp rebound in real GDP growth in 2021,” Moody’s said.
Metro Manila and several cities and provinces across the country are under general community quarantine (GCQ) until the end of July.
In the same research note, Moody’s affirmed its Baa2 stable ranking on the Philippines, reflecting the country’s economic performance.
Just last week, Fitch Ratings downgraded its credit outlook for the Philippines to negative, noting the economic fallout due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It also lowered its growth forecast for this year to 5.0%, from 6.3% in April.—AOL, GMA News