What may lie ahead between Duterte and the new US President

President Rodrigo Duterte rooted for his American counterpart Donald Trump in the US elections and may be seen as possibly having rockier relations with Democratic challenger Joe Biden if the latter lands in the White House. But diplomats from both sides predicted the treaty allies’ robust relations would continue under any leader.

“I expect Vice President Biden to be a little more above it all, [and consider] the bigger picture,” Philippine Ambassador Jose Romualdez said.  “What is important, really, is that we have to remember that we have a long-standing relationship with this country and … it’s not necessary to bring in the personal feelings.”

Washington DC-based Romualdez said in an online interview Thursday with GMA News that the longtime treaty allies can continue maintaining their relations in a level “that we feel is overall good for both countries rather than going to specific issues.”

US Acting Ambassador to Manila John Law expressed the same optimism, telling reporters that US leaders from either the Democratic and Republican parties have nurtured “very, very strong” relations with their Philippine counterparts in the past and fostered the allied nations’ “very, very old” historical ties.

“One constant has been the relationship between our peoples, the relationship between our countries is always very strong and of that I’m certain,” Law said during the American embassy’s election watch reception on Wednesday.

Biden was leading the race to 270 electoral votes Thursday, with Trump’s chances narrowing after the Democratic candidate won the key battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump, however, raised allegations of election fraud and declared himself the winner without basis Wednesday while large numbers of votes were still being counted, raising fears of a protracted electoral legal battle.

Duterte publicly berated then-President Barack Obama over the latter’s critical stance on his deadly anti-drugs campaign. Early in his presidency, Duterte told Obama in a speech to “go to hell” and used an expletive against the former American leader leading to the cancellation of what would have been their first and only meeting in an ASEAN summit in Laos.

Biden was Obama's running mate and vice president from 2008 to 2016. Obama, for his part, became one of the leading backers of Biden’s candidacy during the recent presidential campaigns.

The 77-year-old Biden has also been known for his pro-human rights advocacy and strong position against authoritarianism. Duterte, on the other hand, has been criticized by local and international human rights watchdogs, UN rapporteurs and several Western governments for leading the anti-drug campaign that has left nearly 6,000 suspects dead in police drug raids since he took office in June 2016.

Duterte has been hypersensitive to such criticisms and accusations by human rights groups and brand them as meddling in the country’s domestic affairs. When complaints for crimes against humanity were submitted by opponents to the International Criminal Court in connection with the widespread drug killings in the Philippines, Duterte moved to withdraw the country from the ICC.

Trump did not launch a strong public US pushback against Duterte’s widely criticized war on drugs and fostered friendly relations with the Philippine president. Last March, Duterte urged Filipino-Americans during a news conference to vote and re-elect the Republican leader in a departure from a long tradition of Philippine leaders refraining from publicly endorsing any candidate in US presidential elections.

“If this comes out, vote for Trump. You are getting the best deal with Trump,” he said, addressing Filipino-Americans in the US in reply to a reporter’s question.

Trump reportedly praised Duterte’s handling of the drug problem in the Philippines during a telephone conversation.

It remains to be seen whether Biden, if he wins the US presidency, will opt for a stronger US pushback against Duterte’s drug campaign.

“One of the key platforms of Joe Biden is reinvigorating democracies around the world. For Joe Biden it has to be from the core values of democracy so that is where we see some changes,” said Dindo Manhit, president of Stratbase ADR Institute.

Taking any action that Duterte may deem adversarial may further alienate him from the US. Duterte has cultivated closer ties with China and Russia while often criticizing US policies and lambasting American criticisms of his administration’s anti-drugs crackdown and actions like the detention of opposition Sen. Leila de Lima. 

“America is a land of hypocrisy. There are 40,000 Americans killed every year, drug-related,” Duterte said in a 2016 speech in response to criticisms of his tough policy against illegal drugs.

Duterte’s administration notified the US government, through the US Embassy in Manila, in February that it intends to terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement, or VFA, an important defense agreement that allows large numbers of American military personnel to enter the country for largescale combat exercises.

Duterte, however, decided in June to delay the effectivity of the abrogation of the mutual pact as his government sought international cooperation to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic.

The fate of the strategic VFA will be high in the mind of the winner of the Nov. 3 elections in the US when dealing with Duterte, who has less than two years left in his six-year term. — BM, GMA News