OCTA: NCR COVID-19 reproduction number down to 1.19

The reproduction number of COVID-19 in the National Capital Region has decreased to 1.19, an OCTA Research fellow said on Wednesday.

In an interview with Super Radyo dzBB, Prof. Guido David said a negative growth rate had also been observed.

“‘Yung reproduction number nasa 1.19 and may negative growth rate tayo sa mga lungsod na NCR,” Professor Guido David said in an interview with DzBB.

[The reproduction number right now is at 1.19 and we observed negative growth rate in the cities inside the NCR.]

OCTA on Saturday said the reproduction number in the "bubble" went down to 1.23 over the past week from 1.88 registered before the implementation of strictest lockdown in the region.

David is hoping that the reproduction number will further dip to 1.1 or almost 1 by the end of the week.

The reproduction number refers to the number of people that one COVID-19 case can infect.

David likewise expected that a downward trend would be observed in NCR next week as the government continues the implementation of modified enhanced community quarantine in the region.

He said he expected new cases to be down to 3,000 in Metro Manila after one month.

Despite this, David said the government must still prepare for any possible surges in the country.

This was the same position made by the Department of Health on Wednesday after National Task Force Against COVID-19 and vaccine czar Carlito Galvez Jr. on Tuesday warned of another surge in June or July.

“We have to qualify the statement of Secretary Galvez. He was just trying to say that there might be this possibility of another surge in the coming months if we are not going to continuously comply with the protocols and if we are not going to be able to contain the spread of this virus,” Health Undersecretary Ma. Rosario Vergeire said in a television interview.

The DOH reported 8,122 new infections on Wednesday, bringing the tally to 892,880. --Hana Bordey/NB, GMA News