OCTA says it has 100% COVID-19 surge detection accuracy

OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David on Monday defended the projections being made by the independent group, noting that the surges it predicted had all transpired.

During the House committee on good government and public accountability inquiry, Deputy Speaker Bernadette Herrera-Dy asked the group for comment regarding allegations that the data being presented by OCTA Research were inaccurate.

"When you say mali, I mean there's a range of errors, is it 100% incorrect or five percent incorrect? The level of error we’re seeing is only five percent, and our projections, our models, we have 100% surge detection accuracy," David said.

"The important matter is our models predicted a surge, and it happened. We only projected a surge three times, and it all happened," he added.

Among the surges predicted by the research group was the surge last late March 2021, wherein 4,519 new cases daily had been registered.

Aside from surges, OCTA Research has also been giving "improving" trends on the COVID-19 pandemic, David said.

Infectious disease expert and DOH advisor Dr. Edsel Salvana had said “[t]he main problem with OCTA's case projection model is that it is based on cases reported in the last two weeks."

Earlier, David said OCTA uses three types of data from the Department of Health to make projections: report date or the date a case was reported, specimen date or the date a specimen was taken, and onset date or the date of onset of illness. -NB, GMA News