DOH sees increase in NCR COVID-19 cases under Alert Level 3, prolonged detection time

The Department of Health (DOH) on Monday projected that daily cases in the National Capital Region may increase to more than 4,000 under Alert Level 3 where detection to isolation time is prolonged.

At a media forum, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the DOH studied scenarios under Alert Levels 4 and 3 where the detection to isolation time was conducted within four days and where the detection to isolation time was prolonged.

As of October 1, Vergeire said NCR records 3,897 daily cases.

Under Alert Level 4, Vergeire said daily cases in NCR may decrease to 1,731 with a shorter detection to isolation time while it may decrease to 2,195 with a prolonged detection to isolation time.

Under Alert Level 3, daily cases may increase to 3,311 to 3,605 with a shorter detection to isolation time and increase to 4,061 to 4,557 with a prolonged detection to isolation time.

“This further supports our call to focus on reducing the time between detection and isolation and to not only rely on measures that restrict mobility,” Vergeire said.

Active cases

Under Alert Level 4, active cases are expected to decrease to 10,100 by October 31 with a 4-day detection to isolation time and decrease to 11,779 with a prolonged detection to isolation time.

Meanwhile, Under Alert Level 3, active cases are expected to increase to 13,471 to 14,672 with a shorter detection to isolation time and up to 16,332 to 17,967 active cases with a prolonged detection to isolation time.

Severe and critical cases

Under Alert Level 4, severe and critical cases may decrease to 527 to 849 cases by the end of the month with a shorter detection to isolation time while it is expected to decrease to  616 to 992 cases with a prolonged detection to isolation time.

Under Alert Level 3, severe and critical cases are expected to increase by 703 to 1,235 with a shorter detection to isolation time and increase to 855 to 1,516 cases with a prolonged detection to isolation time.

“We would like to emphasize to that these projections show how important decreasing detection to isolation time is,” she said.

“While we see a decrease in case projections, we want to see an optimal decrease and this will be possible by further shortening detection to isolation time,” she added.

Alert levels

Areas under Alert Level 4 are those with high and/or increasing while total beds and ICU beds are at high utilization rate.

Those not allowed outside their residences are: (i) persons below eighteen (18) years old, (ii) those who are over sixty-five years (65) of age, (iii) those with immunodeficiencies, comorbidities, or other health risks, and (iv) pregnant women; provided, that they shall be allowed access to obtain essential goods and services, or for work in permitted industries and offices.

Meanwhile, areas under Alert Level 3 are those with high case count and/or with increasing utilization rate for total beds and intensive care units.

Movement of persons will be allowed except for reasonable restrictions based on age and comorbidities. Provided, that they shall be allowed access to obtain essential goods and services, or for work in permitted industries and offices. — RSJ, GMA News