NCR has reversed the Delta surge — OCTA

Independent monitoring group OCTA Research on Thursday said the National Capital Region (NCR) has returned to its state before the surge in cases driven by the highly contagious Delta variant.

“Essentially, we have reversed the Delta surge already in the NCR. We are back to where we were before the surge in July,” OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said at the Pandesal Forum.

According to David, the average number of new cases per day in NCR has gone down to 630 from October 27 to November 2, only slightly higher than the 627 daily cases recorded from July 9 to 15.

Meanwhile, the reproduction number slipped to 0.43, lower than the reproduction number of 0.93 recorded in July.

The reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

The current average daily attack rate (ADAR) in the region was at 4.45 per 100,000 individuals, just slightly above the 4.43 recorded in July.

According to OCTA, there are 7,422 active cases in NCR, lower than the 15,947 active cases recorded in the region before the surge of the Delta variant.

NCR also recorded a positivity rate of 4% while the national positivity rate remained at 8%. The World Health Organization's recommendation was to keep the positivity rate at 5% or lower. 

David also said the country seemingly returned to its state in March in terms of COVID-19 cases.

“For the entire country, we are actually back in, it’s like we reversed back to March of this year in terms of cases,” he said.

The Philippines has logged a total of 5,331 Delta cases.

Cebu City best case

Meanwhile, out of the NCR Plus Eight areas, David said only Cebu City is classified as very low risk for COVID-19.

“Cebu City, everything is green. We consider it as probably the best case that we could see right now,” David said at the same forum.

Cebu City recorded an ADAR of 1.43 and a positivity rate of 2%.

David said Cebu may be nearing the “endemic stage.”

“Now some might ask why is Cebu’s growth rate not so low? It’s only 6%. Well, it’s because their cases are already very low. They’re probably close to what we call an endemic stage,” David said.

He said cases in the city will range from 10 to 15 per day.

According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, endemic refers to the constant presence and/or usual prevalence of a disease or infectious agent in a population within a geographic area.

David said the NCR, Rizal, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Davao City, and Pampanga are all classified as low risk areas.

The University of the Philippines math professor also expressed slight concern over possible COVID-19 outbreaks due to the waning protection of COVID-19 vaccines.

“Small concern na nakikita natin (we see a small concern) in other countries, it’s the waning of vaccine efficacy after a period of 6 to 9 months. And there's a theory na kaya nagkaroon ng (that's the reason why there are) spikes in some countries,” he said.

Booster shots may help prevent a spike in cases, David said. 

“That’s why we support having the booster shots even before it happens, especially for those who were the first to be vaccinated. So if we have booster shots around this time, early next year, we could help prevent this spike in cases,” he said.

Infectious disease expert Dr. Rontgene Solante has assured that the number of COVID-19 cases in the country will not reach the level in August or September despite the waning vaccine efficacy. 

The Philippines on Wednesday logged 1,591 new COVID-19 cases, the lowest since February 24, bringing the nationwide tally to 2,793,898. — RSJ/VBL, GMA News