COVID-19 PANDEMIC

NCR 'very low risk' classification possible by March —OCTA

The National Capital Region (NCR) may be classified as very low risk for COVID-19 by March, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said Friday, citing the decrease in daily cases.

OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David, said the projections show that new COVID-19 cases may decrease to around 200 by the end of February from the current average of 600 new infections per day.

“The magic number to achieve very low risk classification is 140 new cases per day, which seems possible by March,” David said in a tweet.

NCR achieved the very low risk classification in December 2021 before the more transmissible Omicron variant pushed the number of cases up again.

Meanwhile, COVID-19 reproduction rate in NCR has decreased to 0.23.

Reproduction number refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

David said the average daily attack rate in NCR is at 6.55 per 100,000 population while the positivity rate is at 8.8%.

The healthcare utilization rate is at 28.6% while the ICU utilization rate decreased to 30.8%.

“In order to achieve these numbers, compliance with health protocols is advised,” David said.

NCR was classified by OCTA as low risk on Wednesday.

However, Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said NCR remains at moderate risk with an ADAR of 12.22 and a negative two-week growth rate. —KBK, GMA News