La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific might emerge as early as next month, the state weather bureau PAGASA said Tuesday, August 26, 2025.

"Model forecasts suggest an increasing probability of short-lived La Niña conditions as early as the September-October-November season until the October-November-December season," PAGASA said in a statement.

In a report on GMA News Online, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are remarkably lower than normal during La Niña, the cool phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

It is linked to above-normal rainfall conditions in most parts of the country and an above-average number of tropical cyclone occurrences towards the end of the year.

PAGASA said that a La Niña Watch is issued when the probability of La Niña developing during the next six months is 55% or higher and the conditions are suitable for its formation. 

"DOST-PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the possibility of La Niña and its effect on the local climate," it added.

La Niña conditions were present for a few months in 2024 and early 2025.