DOH says COVID-19 daily attack rate still high in affected areas

The Department of Health (DOH) said on Saturday that the COVID-19 daily attack rate is still high in affected areas despite the decrease in the reproduction number in the National Capital Region.

The OCTA Research group reported on Saturday that the COVID-19 reproduction number — the average number of people infected by one person in a susceptible population — in the NCR went down to 0.61 for the week of October 2 to 8.

This is lower than the 0.83 reproduction number for September 25 to October 1.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, however, noted that looking at the data of the average daily attack rate, it is still high in affected areas.

“Pero 'pag tinignan natin 'yung average daily attack rate, mataas pa rin sa mga piling lugar. Ito po ang ibig sabihin 'yung affected population ay marami pa rin in these areas,” Vergeire said during the Laging Handa briefing.

(If we look at the average daily attack rate, it is still high in selected areas. This means that the affected population is still high in these areas.)

Vergeire said the DOH is continuing to help augment hospitals in Metro Manila as some are still at full capacity.

The Health undersecretary emphasized that despite the decline in the number of COVID-19 cases, the hospitals are the last to decongest as some individuals, particularly those admitted in the intensive care units (ICUs), stay for more than 21 days.

“While the cases are going down, ang ospital po talaga ay nahuhuli sa pag-decongest because these individuals, particularly sa ICU, mas matagal po silang naglalagi sa ospital. It can be more than 21 days or more kaya mabagal po natin mai-decongest ang ating mga ospital,” she added.

(While the cases are going down, it takes a while for hospitals to decongest because these individuals, particularly those in the ICU, stay longer than 21 days or more, so we are slow to decongest our hospitals.)

Vergeire gave the assurance that the DOH's strength and response programs are continuously being implemented in  affected communities to lessen the COVID-19 transmission.

OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David on Twitter said on Saturday the seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases in NCR is 2,140 for the week of Oct. 2 to 8. For Sept. 25 to Oct. 1, the seven-day average of new cases was 3,627.

The daily attack rate of the virus per 100,000 was at 15.32 for Oct. 2 to 8 in NCR, still considered high. However, this is lower than the 25.97 daily attack rate of the virus from Sept. 25 to Oct. 1, considered critical.

DOH Secretary Francisco Duque III on Saturday said they are hoping that the seven-day moving average of new COVID-19 cases will further go down as this is one of the metrics being monitored by the government to determine if the current Alert Level 4 in NCR can be lowered to Alert Level 3.

The DOH reported on Friday that 10,670 new COVID-19 infections were recorded.

This brought the total to 2,643,494 COVID-19 cases in the country. —KG, GMA News