PHL budget deficit likely hit P190B, says Budget Dept.

The budget deficit last year is around P190 billion, according to an estimate reported by an official of the Department of Budget and Management.   “The deficit for 2011 is P190 billion,” Budget Undersecretary Laura Pascua said Wednesday.   Government is scheduled to report on the final numbers early next month.   The original deficit ceiling, set by the interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee, was P300 billion, but was later revised to P260 billion after government spending in the first half of 2011 failed to meet the disbursements on program.   The interagency committee is in-charge of setting macroeconomic assumptions. It met on Wednesday to see if there was a need to revise the deficit ceiling for 2012.   “For our 2012 fiscal target, we are keeping it at 2.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). That can change whatever the GDP number will be,” said Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima, noting that government has a lot of catching up to do.   It was originally planned at 2 percent of GDP.   The committee on Wednesday also revised government’s export revenue targets to $55.3 billion from $58.6 billion, citing economic uncertainties in the US and Europe.   “In imports, we’re also projecting a decrease to $75.9 billion from $79.4 billion. As you know, our imports and exports are highly correlated,” Purisima said.   Assumptions regarding merchandise trade were revised in the 2012 macro assumptions, the Finance chief noted.   Expectations that the GDP will grow between 5 percent and 6 percent this year, as well as the 6 percent to 7 percent for 2013, were kept by the committee.   Looking back, Purisima noted that 2011 consisted of many negative developments.” Well, 2011 was a very unusual year. There were a lot of black swans.”   The Finance secretary then cited “… the Japanese earthquake and the nuclear accident which really affected the supply chain. Then you had Middle East Arab Spring, no one predicted that. Europe was already there but the way it unraveled also affected us.”   “Twenty-eleven was one of those years when there were simply too many things going against most countries,” he added. — VS, GMA News