Inflation may stay below 3% in April, says BSP chief

Inflation could dip further in April, according to Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Gov. Amando Tetangco Jr, who sees consumer prices moving within the 2.1 to 3.0 percent range.   The National Statistics Office is expected to the release of the April consumer price index data next Friday, May 4.   “The April inflation rate could be lower than that registered last month if the impact of lower prices of international oil and domestic fuel products and the peso appreciation was not offset by higher utility charges and transport fare increase,” Tetangco said.   NSO figures show inflation was at 4 percent in January, then fell to 2.7 percent in February, and settled at 2.6 in March.   BSP forecasts indicate inflation averaging out at 3.1 percent this year and 3.3 percent in 2013.   “Our forecast for the path of inflation over the policy horizon still shows within target average,” Tetangco also said.   The BSP's standing caveat is the volatility of prices of crude oil and other commodities in the world market. Global food prices are rising again, pushed higher by costlier oil, strong demand from Asia and bad weather in parts of Europe, South America and the United States, the World Bank said on Wednesday.

 

The latest World Bank food price index showed the cost of food rose 8 percent between December and March. In the previous four months, prices had declined. Even after the latest rise, food prices remain 1 percent below a year ago and 6 percent below the February 2011 historical peak, the World Bank said.

 

"After four months of consecutive price declines, food prices are on the rise again, threatening the food security of millions of people," Otaviano Canuto, World Bank vice president for poverty reduction and economic management, said in a statement.

 

"The price indices of grains, fats and oils, and other foods all increased in each month since January 2012," the World Bank said.

 

The international rice price declined, however, due to abundant supplies of the grain and strong competition among exporters, the poverty-fighting institution said.

 

If current food production forecast for 2012/2013 do not materialize, global food prices could reach higher levels and required close monitoring, the World Bank cautioned. — with Reuters/ELR, GMA News