Numerophilia: ADMU vs UST in the Finals - what the stats say

These are the games that matter most, where months of hard work and hardcourt battles climax. It’s time for UAAP Season 75’s Finals series between the Ateneo Blue Eagles and the UST Growling Tigers! What this article will do is look at a season’s worth of data gathered from both teams, analyze it, and try to predict what factors will dictate the outcome of this series. Basically, we’ll be looking at the story the numbers tell.
 It’s been six years since these two teams met in the Finals of Season 69. Back then, Ateneo finished the elimination round with a dominant 10-2 record, thanks in part to an eight-game win streak bridging the two rounds. Their two losses came against an illness-wracked UST Growling Tigers team in round two, and a final day defeat to the UE Red Warriors. UST on the other hand struggled to break even at the start of the season, following a season-ending ACL injury to Jemal Vizcarra. After seven games, UST was just at 2-5, but they went on an incredible run to close the season, winning four of their next five to finish at an even 6-6.

	ORTG	DRTG	Eff Diff
Ateneo Blue Eagles	98.46	87.79	10.68
UST Growling Tigers	94.98	91.22	3.76

Fast-forward to today and the Ateneo Blue Eagles are similarly dominating the league by winning 12 of their 14 elimination round games. In fact, Ateneo finished well ahead of any team in the league with an EffDiff of +10.68. On the other hand, the UST Growling Tigers shot lights-out, finishing the round one as the best offensive team in the league, buoyed by incredible contributions from Jeric Teng (49.3% from downtown on 6.3 attempts per game) and Clark Bautista (30.7% from downtown on 7.2 attempts per game), to go along with center Karim Abdul. The second part of the season tells a different story, where UST looked largely inconsistent. In total, they finished the second round with a record of 4-3, struggling as they entered the Final Four. This is in stark contrast to their team back in 2006 that peaked at just the right time, taking two games from  second-seeded UE just to enter the Finals. So with one team following in the footsteps of its predecessor (Ateneo) and another team following an opposite path (UST), will the tables finally turn? Or does history repeat itself? Will it be 2006-redux, or a five-peat? What factors will probably determine who wins the Finals?     •   Pick and Roll Offense/Defense It has always been a struggle for Ateneo to defend pick-and-roll sets, because of their slow-footed players, a point I outlined in my post here. With Jeric Fortuna, who’s an excellent PnR player, and Karim Abdul being a good mid-range shooter as well as a solid finisher inside, the Fortuna-Abdul PnR sets they will face shall be harder to defend than the Almond Vosotros-Norbert Torres equivalents that La Salle used to torch Ateneo’s wildly inconsistent defense (ADMU’s standard deviation on their DRTG was 12.31, with six of their 14 games located more than one standard deviation from the average). I haven’t even mentioned the fact that UST has more capable shooters than La Salle, with Jeric Teng and Alijon Mariano finishing fourth (56.6%) and fifth (54%) in terms of eFG from 3PT range, and Clark Bautista, who’s had a down season, shooting just 28.3% from downtown, but is historically quite accurate from 3PT land (36%, 32% and 30% in his previous three seasons). If Coach Pido Jarencio decides to attack this weakness, then things will be bleak for the Eagles to repeat.     •    The men in the middle - Slaughter versus Abdul Greg Slaughter has struggled playing against Abdul, who is quicker and boasts of similar strength. The only advantage Slaughter has on offense is his long arms, which can easily be countered by a quick double team. It is up to Slaughter to force the Tigers to double and immediately kick the ball out to his shooters (Juami Tiongson, Oping Sumalinog, and Kiefer Ravena). The good thing is that although Abdul can shut down Slaughter, aside from the Cameroonian, UST has no depth whatsoever at the center position, with Pe and Afuang measuring a full eight inches shorter than Ateneo’s seven-footer. So if Slaughter can force Abdul to stay on the bench for more than his typical five minutes off the court, it would be a huge boon for the Eagles. Otherwise, it’s going to be another long night for the big guy, who struggled to score against DLSU.     •    UST's defense UST hasn’t exactly established themselves as a good defensive team. They’re actually mediocre, finishing the season with a DRTG of 91.22, which was only 0.61 points/100 possession better than the league average. Offense on the other hand, has been Ateneo’s calling card, finishing third in the first round, first in the second round and first for the overall eliminations. Therefore, UST must step up to the plate defensively if they want to make all of this easier. Putting out a good defensive effort relieves pressure from UST’s offense to keep up with Ateneo’s solid but inconsistent defense.     •    UST's depth Although UST slumped big time in the second round, they still managed to finish fourth in EffDiff, winning by an average of 3.76 points/100-possession. They did that not by being a top-heavy team (like ADMU, NU and FEU), but through their depth. There were 42 players who logged at least 15 minutes/game and registered an ORTG that was above the league average of 82.3. Of those 42 players, four UST players belonged to the top half (ranked 21 and above), with six total on that list.

	ORTG	Ranks
Clark Bautista	101.2	11
Karim Abdul	101	12
Jeric Fortuna	99.6	16
Jeric Teng	97.1	19
Aljon Mariano	90.3	35
Kevin Ferrer	88.6	36

Those same six players played 80% of the available minutes for UST. It’s one thing to have good offensive players, it’s another thing to recognize this and distribute possessions properly. Credit goes to Coach Pido for understanding his team well and allocating minutes accordingly. Here are some other things that will probably happen (based on their season averages): Ateneo will probably lose the rebounding battle. With the exit of JP Erram due to an ACL injury, this is a weakness that has become more apparent. In the three games since Erram got injured, Ateneo’s rebounding margins are -30%, -12% and +3%. This will be made more apparent in the series because UST is the top offensive rebounding team in the league, hauling down 37.8% of their own misses. ADMU will probably also lose the turnover battle. The Blue Eagles have never been a team that’s good at taking care of the ball, turning it over 18.04% of the time, second only to NU at 18.21%. They are also not the best at forcing TOs, making opponents commit an error 15.25% of the time, second only to DLSU at 14.96%. In contrast, UST is one of the best at taking care of the ball and forcing TOs, finishing the season ranked second in both categories. They turned the ball over on just 16.05% of their possessions while forcing opponents to turn the ball over 19.03% of the time. However, UST will probably lose the eFG battle, which is a category Ateneo dominates, finishing first at making shots and second at forcing misses. In total, the Blue Eagles win the battle of “making shots” by a total of 7.54%. UST finished right around the league average of 42.40% both in making and defending shots. It must also be noted that Ateneo is the top team in terms of making free throws, finishing the season comfortably ahead in first place. They are also second-best in  preventing the opponent from getting to the FT line. Again, ADMU wins the battle of “drawing and making FTs” by a whopping 12.22%. This makes it hard for UST since they are third worst at both making FTs and preventing FTs. The Tigers' FTR was just 17.23% while their FTR allowed was 22.15%. How huge the win is for each team in their dominant categories – FT and eFG for Ateneo, TO and rebounds for UST – will depend largely on the keys to the game. If for example, UST can wreak havoc on Ateneo’s defense using the PnR, then Ateneo’s victory on the eFG is lessened. Alternately, if Slaughter can read the defense right on their possessions, then Ateneo will probably win the eFG battle. If UST’s D comes to play, then their advantage in the TO department will be larger. If Abdul can force Slaughter out of the game because of foul trouble, then Ateneo’s advantage at the eFG battle will be lessened, while consequently increasing UST’s advantage on the rebounding end. Odds are this will be a close series. UST is the team that matches up best with Ateneo: Tiongson versus Fortuna, Ravena versus Teng, Salva versus Mariano, Slaughter versus Abdul, Buenafe versus Bautista, and Ferrer versus Sumalinog. The Blue Eagles showed signs of weakness against DLSU. It is up to the Growling Tigers to study those weaknesses and exploit them even more. Will we see Ateneo reach the pinnacle of UAAP basketball dominance? Or will UST crash their party and claim the crown for their own? Only time will tell. - AMD/HS, GMA News Nico Baguio holds a Masters Degree in Mathematics from the Ateneo de Manila University. He's currently a writer for SBNation's At The Hive and runs a website that focuses on using advanced statistics on the local hoops scene, Humble Bola. You can email him at contact@humblebola.com. You can also follow him on Twitter.