PHL likely to hit 7% output in Q1 - Finance official

Philippine output may reach 7 percent in the first quarter, anchored on strong exports, reconstruction activities, and the roll-out of infrastructure projects.

"I'm sure it will be very close or above 7 percent. The indicators point to that. First quarter looks like a very good number," Finance undersecretary Gil Beltran told reporters on the sidelines of the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the British and Philippine government.

He said drivers for the first quarter are exports and infrastructure.

"If you look at coconut exports, positive na siya for January. It's a good indicator of the [central Philippines'] recovery. If you look at electronics, ang taas ng growth, plus the fact that we have started with the expressways," Beltran said.

Typhoon Yolanda – the strongest to make landfall on record – barreled through the central Philippines last November. It curbed gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter to 6.5 percent, bringing the full-year GDP growth to 7.2 percent.

Although not confirming the Finance official's forecast, NEDA assistant director general Rose Edillon said GDP will be robust in the first quarter.

"Historically, Q1 is not faster than Q4. However, our Q4 had Yolanda in it," Edillon told reporters during the Philippine Development Plan Midterm Update briefing in Pasig City the same day.

For the first quarter, the NEDA official said demand will be driven by the strong external sector and capital formation, as well as a continued rise in household consumption.

On the production side, Edillon said manufacturing, construction, information technology-business process management (IT-BPM), and tourism will lead the way.

"We're just starting to get the numbers. For the exports, we just got the numbers for February. Leading economic indicators actually forecast the cycle component of the GDP, not the entire GDP. It doesn't include the irregular and seasonal component," Edillon said.

For the whole year, government is confident GDP will grow within the target of 6.5-7.5 percent.

"Primarily because of the reconstruction, a lot of PPP (public-private partnership) projects are coming online this year. We are also seeing bright prospects in the global economy. In fact, exports has been responding very well," Edillon said.

Philippine merchandise exports rose nearly a quarter in February on higher receipts from seven major commodities, including electronic equipment and parts, the National Statistics Office reported last week. — JDS, GMA News