Despite recent rainy days, El Niño still likely in coming months

Despite the rain that caused floods in parts of the country in recent days, the public may still have to prepare for El Niño in the coming months.

The Australian government's Bureau of Meteorology said its models suggest El Niño "remains possible during the coming months."

"Four of the seven climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Niño is likely by the Australian summer of 2014–15," it said.

It said these model outlooks and current observations may suggest at least a 50-percent chance of El Niño developing in the coming months.

A 50-percent chance is "around double the normal likelihood of an event," the bureau said.

In past days, parts of the country had experienced heavy rain due to a low-pressure area passing through the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

Above-average temperatures

On the other hand, the BOM said the brief weakening of trade winds over the Pacific Ocean earlier this month produced little warming of tropical sea surface temperatures.

"However, waters below the surface of the Pacific have warmed during the past few weeks, and therefore above-average temperatures near the surface are likely to persist or strengthen over the coming months," it said.

El Niño-like patterns

The BOM also said El Niño-like weather patterns can occur even if an event has not been fully established.

In Australia, it noted these include below-average rainfall in parts of eastern Australia, above-average daytime temperatures and "a number of significant frost events." — Joel Locsin/JDS, GMA News