Why Metro Manila should still prepare for Typhoon Ruby's effects

By TJ DIMACALI, GMA News

Published December 4, 2014 7:20pm

Although most forecast models predict Typhoon Ruby (Hagupit) to cut across central Visayas, Manila will not be spared from the storm's effects—and the metropolis even stands a fair chance of being in the storm's direct path.

According to GMA News resident meteorologist Nathaniel "Mang Tani" Cruz, as of early Thursday evening, most forecast models from various international weather agencies predict Ruby to head west-northwest across central Visayas.

However, the latest projection from the US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) as of noon Philippine time shows that Ruby may instead move through Quezon and Aurora.

If this forecast doesn't change, Ruby is expected to be less than 100 km away from Manila by Tuesday afternoon.

The JTWC already considers Ruby a "super typhoon."

NCR, Luzon should prepare

Mang Tani explained that, in accordance with PAGASA's official forecast and those of most other agencies, most preemptive efforts are currently focused on the Visayas and Bicol regions.

However, he also said that the NCR and adjacent regions in Luzon should still make preparations for possible heavy rain and flash floods early next week.

Whether or not Ruby will follow JTWC's forecast track, Mang Tani reiterated PAGASA's earlier warnings and reminded the public that a large portion of the country will still experience moderate to heavy rainfall within Ruby's 700-km diameter expanse.

Slowdown and small chance of possible recurve

Mang Tani also pointed out that, as of Thursday evening, Ruby's advance has slowed to just 15 kph due to the lack of external forces—the typhoon's "steering flow"—moving it forward. Meanwhile, a high pressure area (HPA) north of the Philippines is still keeping the typhoon on a generally westward path.

It remains to be seen if the HPA will weaken enough to allow Ruby to curve northward, and if external forces will push it in that direction. — JST, GMA News

Tags: weather, hagupit, ruby