How's the weather? Ask K.

Weather wonks in the Philippines grow cult followings, if that's what you can call those who anxiously check what K's weather is saying online whenever there is something brewing in the skies. 

 

Without leaving her home, K. tracked satellite images on the web, monitored various weather agencies, and pronounced the fast approaching Tropical Storm Sendong "a meanie" days before any government warnings last December. 

 

Now K. is on the radar of many whose jobs and even just recreation depend on advance knowledge of the weather. 

 

The artist and impresario Rock Drilon claims that K.'s never been wrong whenever he needed a forecast for his ArtBike group rides to Metro Manila galleries. 

 

On Facebook, Twitter, and her blog, typhoonk, K. shares not just clinical information about the weather but sassy commentary about media's reporting and even withering criticism of weather officialdom. 

 

K is actually Karen Berthelsen Cardenas, a half-Danish former college teacher living in Quezon City who developed an acute awareness of the weather while living and commuting in Europe. 

 

She makes no claims to scientific expertise, just an intense interest in climate and weather since Typhoon Ondoy in 2009, when government warning systems proved ruinously inadequate. 

 

Her very first weather post was on that fateful Saturday morning in September just as Ondoy was turning Metro Manila into water world: "unrelenting rain."

 

In the Q and A below, K. reveals that the energy she pours into her weather posting on social media is an extension of her teaching vocation, as well as a great responsibility. 

 

While she tried to warn people about the ferocity of Sendong, "I didn't want people to panic... It's a hard call," she says in the interview conducted by email. "People want certainty. No one can give them that, even with flashfloods. You can only be 100% certain within ten or so minutes of the event." Why the interest in weather?    K.: I love solving things.  I love puzzles, I love researching and finding information to fit into puzzles, patterns. Weather is probably one of the greatest puzzles. We know HOW cyclones are formed. But we really don’t know WHY.   I’m a “nature person”, watching the seasons, the changes. When I lived in Europe and would take the bus to work, weather was a big thing for me – did I need an umbrella, how many layers of clothes did I need to wear? Weather awareness was part of planning the next day’s routine and activities.   And then Ondoy happened. The day before Ondoy, when the first drizzles began in the early evening, I remember telling a friend I was with, “There is something not right. There’s something about this rain.” I decided I would stay awake until the rain stopped and look at satellite imagery. The rain didn’t stop and I didn’t sleep. I knew something significant was happening. And my very first weather post in the morning of Sept 26 was “unrelenting rain.” I haven’t stopped posting about weather since then.   What is your background and how has it helped you in analyzing and informing others about the weather?    K.: Absolutely no background if you mean formal academic study of meteorology. What I have done since Ondoy is do modules on various topics of tropical meteorology, flood forecasting, precipitation estimates, satellite imagery analysis. There are a lot available online from NASA and COMET.    But, I’ve always been in the publishing and communications business – I used to do a weekly feature on the environment for Mr & Ms in the early 90s, and at one point won an award for science journalism. In the 90s, also, I was part of the Green Earth Movement – artists and writers for the environment, but we were ahead of our time. So basically, I’ve been a writer and in publishing for the last 30 years, and a teacher for about ten years.   How much time do you spend keeping track of the weather?    K.: Tracking: a few hours a day if there is no event in the offing.  Then I spend at least three hours doing study and research. If there is a system developing I can be online for 36 hours with no sleep.   What to you are the most useful sources for Philippine weather information and why?    K.: NASA and its agencies are the most useful. All satellite imagery is available from them. So for pre-formation they are what I refer to. I also check the US military and Navy sites. I visit various US university sites because they have research and tracking that supplements the NASA raw data.  I visit agencies that prepare the NWPs (numerical weather prediction models). Then of course, once there is formation, I find JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) to be the most reliable. I check the agencies of Japan, Australia, China, Hongkong and many others.   Then finally, I check PAGASA to correlate what they have posted. I check if typhoon2000.com has a different perspective.   I also listen to the news reports on TV, Twitter feeds, but mostly as entertainment or if I want a dose of frustration.   As early as Dec 13, you were warning that Storm Sendong would be "a meanie." What gave you that notion?    K.: I don’t want to say intuition, because that sounds terribly unscientific. But it was the same sense I had with Ondoy and Pedring and then with Sendong. When you are watching a system non-stop, from the very time it’s just an “idea” of a cyclone, in the case of Sendong. Dec 10, you begin to detect what I call, a certain persistence, or single-mindedness of the system and I watch it very carefully. Every little change. Of course, I verify with the science part - the wind shear, the speed and direction of winds, the way the pressure drops, etc.   I remember Pedring, I didn’t want to say it would be Ondoy-like in certain terms because people were still traumatized and if I was wrong, I didn’t want to add to the paranoia. So I hinted at it by posting comparative rainfall from eTraps. I was also looking at the tides and dams. It didn’t look good at all. But what could I do, you see it coming, you write about it, but those in charge don’t see it, it seems.   If you check my blog on Pedring or the FB page, I had been warning about the dams on Sept 19. On Sept 21, I was warning about wave height, and on Sept 26 about the one meter tide. The reporting on Pedring was even more scandalous than that of Sendong because they seemed to be watching, but were confident that the storm would not hit the metro.   With Sendong, I also didn’t want people to panic. It’s a hard call to balance panic with warning because people don’t understand the weather. They want certainty. No one can give them that, even with flashfloods. You can only be 100% certain within ten or so minutes of the event. Very few people get that.   How did PAGASA perform during that time?    K.: Sadly, badly. They issued a warning on the 14^th but said they would not issue typhoon signals until Friday or Saturday. That was unfortunate. I think it is because they interpret their mandate to mean that they should only issue signals when a system has entered PAR (Philippine Area of Responsibility). This can create problems with fast-moving systems like Sendong. But I understand the difficulties of PAGASA as our people are not weather-educated. If they issue signal #1 in the 36-hour warning period they are mandated to do, people would say “Bakit, e maaraw naman. Bobo talaga ng PAGASA.“ People don’t seem to understand the idea of “warning” vs “real-time”. I also understand that media largely ignored Sendong’s arrival.   Was there a public communication problem in the days leading up to the Sendong disaster?    K.: Did PAGASA communicate the situation to media? I know that on the 14^th PAGASA did say that there was a storm outside of PAR and they would issue a signal on Friday or Saturday. [Unfortunately, landfall was already expected on Friday at 2 p.m.]   I think because media people don’t know how weather systems work, they rely solely on PAGASA, and if the warnings are bland and generic, they don’t pay much attention. More airtime is given when the disaster has happened. If media watched the NDRRMC preparations on the ground, the LGU preparations, more immediate disaster preparedness would probably happen.   But, I think the problem with Sendong was exacerbated by the fact that it happened so close to Christmas and media were probably practicing their numbers or preparing for parties. That Friday night, metro-centric news stations were partying. (At one party), one of the heads even thanked the people for being at the concert despite the fact na bumabagyo at maulan. It seems no one was manning breaking news as the storm was running the course through Mindanao.   I don’t know how they were faring in radio and TV in Mindanao.   I've noticed that you have often been critical of PAGASA. What's your main beef?    K.: I am certain PAGASA has its strengths and that its forecasting personnel are more than able at their jobs. If it seems I have often been critical, it’s because I blogged about the biggest events that could have been prevented if there had been more vigilance and cross-thinking.   Immediately after Pedring they began talking about storm surges. After Sendong, flash flooding. My question is why are they seemingly reactive, rather than proactive? That’s my beef.   I do believe they lack equipment. I think they still run their forecasting model on freeware that is a downloadable research tool. At least that’s what it says on its website. I don’t know if that is enough for operational forecasting in the country that is subject to the most tropical cyclones in the world. They do need more Doppler radars – and not just two or three more – Doppler radars are effective for only about 200km radii. They need much much much more than what they have. We need an entire network of radars.   But given that they don’t have what they need yet, there are ways to find the satellite information for now, while they do not have enough ground-based radar or rain gauge networks.   If I have been critical it’s because I know they know what’s about to happen. It’s not possible that they don’t. They need to take a risk on the side of safety of people. Or maybe that’s not their job at all. Observation and forecasting is their job. Communication and warning might not be its core competence. Maybe someone else should do that.   I do believe they need a change in protocols. It’s not just PAGASA, it’s the system of delivery, response. Mandates should be reviewed and realigned.  

1. PAGASA is a forecasting agency. They should provide the data from the moment a system has a high change of development, whether it is outside PAR or not, and provide the meteorological and hydrological information. Track the storm and give the info to the public and to an office that is mandated to warn (see b). Its job ends there. THEY FORECAST AND INFORM.

2. The NDRRMC mandate should be split into two offices– one for RISK REDUCTION/ PREPAREDNESS. Headed by someone who thoroughly understands climate and climate change and can understand the data on storms and coordinate with DECS and CHED and MMDA, and the Dams, etc. and issue typhoon warning signals, class suspensions, coordinate dam release, flood warnings, etc. Someone who thoroughly understands the flood mapping, and also geological hazards –landslides, earthquakes and volcanoes. THEY STAY INFORMED, ANALYZE, AND WARN.

[Of course that is not the only thing the office will do – it will also take care of all aspects of risk reduction – laws, monitoring, coordination, etc.]  

3. The other office of the NDRRMC should be for DISASTER RESPONSE AND RELIEF – the men in the field once there is an expected situation – deployed to areas where the potential disaster will be BEFORE the disaster happens. To get people out before it hits, to rescue when it hits, etc. Ramos seems to be a great person for that. THEY ACT, MOVE PEOPLE, THEY RESCUE.

  Sendong was considered "weak" by the standards of PAGASA yet it caused so much destruction. How can the storm signal system be improved?    K.: It was weak in terms of wind intensity, which is the traditional measurement of cyclones based on the potential damage a cyclone can wreak. I understand they are devising a signal now based on rainfall, which should address potential flooding. And that is great, but again it doesn’t end there. Flash flooding is caused by several factors, and not just rainfall. It also depends how fast the storm is moving, what direction it is coming from, the real-time topography, the current moisture in the soil, among others. It doesn’t end with a rainfall signal.     How do you think the mass media can improve its communication to the public about the weather?    Oh, I think there should be something like the Weather Channel, that throughout the day has weather conditions – sea, wind, rain – but also one that deals with weather and climate education and documentaries throughout the day, interspersed with weather conditions throughout the country. I guess one of my peeves is that PAGASA says they warn the LGUs, but what if I am in Baguio and I had planned a trip to Legaspi City? Do I not need to know what the conditions may be in Bicol? If I am in Manila and I wanted to go to Puerto Galera, do I not need to know wave conditions in the crossing from Batangas? If I am delivering vegetables… etc. etc. That’s why people get stuck in the ports.   The media should also know what they’re talking about. Since we don’t have meteorologists as weather girls, the anchors should study what they’re talking about. The saddest thing to see is a pretty girl getting tongue-tied while trying to explain the northeast monsoon. UP has a course for that. But, if they aren’t really interested in understanding what they’re reporting on, it still shows.   Stories are also so anecdotal, isang nanay, isang bata, tingnan mo ang mga troso. Do we even know how much coastline was filled with logs? How deep? How many square kilometers? No. It’s like saying the water is half-tire, half-curb, hanggang baiwang. E paano kung baiwang ni JC Intal, that would be my neck probably. Reports should be more data or info-driven, not emotional stories.  I remember this tweet by credible journalists awed that the rain that came down was one meter high. Sometimes even the media creates misinformation.   As a former (current?) teacher, how do you think students and communities should be educated about the weather?    K.: Former, if you mean in a classroom. Now I teach through my FB weather page.   As a start, children should be taught how weather works, how storms are formed, how and why floods happen. What the dangers are. But first, their teachers and parents should be able to have a basic understanding of what they are trying to teach. So we must start with teachers and parents.   I recall how after Ondoy, someone, I can’t recall his name, was all over TV telling people that they should install rain gauges in their gardens so they could tell if a flood was about to happen. Yes, in a way, but what good would a rain gauge in CDO have been if the flashflood came from Bukidnon? Rain gauges are useful if you have a network of gauges that are properly installed, and people who have them are in communication with a central office that has knowledge of terrain and flood maps. Otherwise, you could still be floating away with a half-empty rain gauge beside you. – KG, GMA News