How the current oil situation affects the Metro Manila condo market

Property developers are "hesitant" to start new projects amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, Leechiu Property Consultants (LPC) said Tuesday.

Metro Manila's condominium inventory is now seen to take about 31 months to sell, down from 41 months as of end-2025, as developers slowed new project launches amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the firm said in its first-quarter report.

According to the LPC, 987 units were launched in the first three months of 2026, lower than the 1,347 units made available in the same period in 2025.

The biggest share of launched units were for the upper-middle market (P4 million to P7 million) with 735 units. There were 231 units for the high-end market (P12 million to P68 million) and 21 units for the luxury market (P68 million and above). No launches were reported for the lower middle, middle-income, and upscale markets.

“Developers are still very hesitant in launching new projects,” LPC Research and Consultancy director Roy Golez Jr. said in a briefing in Makati City.

“Actually, if there was no situation today with the Iran-US war, I would be talking about a great recovery,” he said.

This comes amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East due to the conflict between the United States and Iran that started in February.

US President Donald Trump over the weekend threatened to target Iran’s power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping corridor that carries around a fifth of the world’s oil, is not reopened by 8 p.m. on Tuesday, eastern time.

On Tuesday night (Philippines time), Iran said several key structures were struck by the US and Israel, as the deadline inched closer.

81,000 units on the market

Even with fewer launches, there were 81,000 units of available supply in Metro Manila across 621 active selling buildings during the quarter, up from 80,300 units that were on the market in the previous quarter.

Out of the unsold inventory, 48,600 units or 60% were pre-selling, while 32,400 units or 40% were ready for occupancy (RFO). Quezon City had the most unsold units with 19,300, followed by Ortigas, Mandaluyong, Pasig, and San Juan with 14,000, and the Bay Area, Pasay, and Parañaque also with 14,000.

Demand for the first quarter, meanwhile, increased to 7,732 units from 4,675 units the previous quarter. This is also 19% higher than the 6,508 units that were turned over in the first quarter of 2025.

Stronger demand and fewer new launches reduced unsold condo inventory to an equivalent of 31 months, down from 42 months in the fourth quarter of 2025, but still above LPC’s 12-month benchmark.

“It is the strong take-up rather than the lack of new supply. Demand is most evident in the lower middle to middle income and upscale segment, where developers implemented aggressive payment terms and discount strategies to make the products more affordable,” Golez said.

“Projects in these segments offer attractive promos, including discounts of up to 16%, with some developments offering 25% to 50% discounts on select units,” he added. — BM, GMA News