Economic indicator turns positive - NSCB

The Philippine economy is seen to recover in the third quarter of the year as the leading economic indicator (LEI) moved up from the previous quarter. In the second quarter, Philippine economy posted a modest growth of 3.4 percent, significantly slower than the 8.9-percent growth reported in the same period in 2010. The National Statistical Coordination Board on Thursday said the LEI "improved in the third quarter of 2011 to 0.084 from a revised 0.066 in the second quarter of 2011." "The third quarter performance brought the trajectory of the LEI back to an increasing trend that started in the fourth quarter of 2009 but was disrupted in the second quarter this year," the NSCB said. LEI is a measure that provides planners and decision makers a glimpse of where the economy is headed in the near-term by utilizing past data of indicators that move several quarters ahead of the business cycle. Of the 11 indicators that make up the composite LEI, six contributed positively: wholesale price index, consumer price index, stock price index, foreign exchange rate, hotel occupancy rate, and electric energy consumption. Meanwhile, the five negative contributors were total merchandise imports, money supply, terms of trade index, number of new businesses and tourist arrivals. "From the revised second quarter to the third quarter LEI, there were two shifts in the direction of contribution: hotel occupancy rate, from negative to positive, and merchandise imports from positive to negative," the NSCB added. -CMA/OMG, GMA News