Global goods trade strengthening despite tariffs, Middle East tensions, WTO says

GENEVA — Global trade in goods has strengthened from June despite geopolitical and policy-related uncertainties, the World Trade Organization said on Wednesday, signaling resilience in merchandise flows even as risks remain elevated.

The September reading of the WTO's barometer tracking merchandise trade growth was 102, an improvement from the June barometer of 101.7, with growth remaining above trend.

The WTO publishes its Goods Trade Barometer four times a year. It covers export orders, air freight, container shipping, automotive products, raw materials and electronic components.

Readings above 100 indicate growth above the baseline trend of 100, while figures below 100 point to below-trend growth.

The Geneva-based trade body said the strengthening came despite uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions and trade policy developments.

In March, the WTO forecast that growth in world trade in goods would slow down markedly to 1.9% this ‌year from 4.6% in 2025 and could decelerate even more if the US war with Iran continues to push up energy prices and disrupt global transport.

US President Donald Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs on global trading partners, while shipping through the key Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil supplies used to transit, has been severely disrupted by conflict in the Middle East.

However, strong demand for electronic components tied to investment in AI and digital infrastructure was helping offset the negative effects from those factors, the WTO report said.

Trade growth remains uneven across sectors and regions, and the WTO warned that geopolitical and policy-related risks continue to cloud the outlook due to ongoing disruption to supply chains, shipping routes and transport costs. — Reuters