PIDS: Repeat of Mindanao power crisis likely

The country may see a repeat of last year's “power crisis” in Mindanao this summer season and the next as there have been no significant increase in the region's capacity to provide electricity amid dwindling state of energy infrastructure, a policy think-tank said Wednesday. 

 

“Although the Mindanao electric power crisis has passed, it might stage a comeback given that there had been no additions to the baseload capacity recently,” read a recent study by Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS)'s senior research fellow Adoracion Navarro. 

 

Citing 2012 data from the Department of Energy (DOE), the study noted that at present, the Mindanao grid has 37.31 percent baseload generating capacity, compared to Luzon's 63.94 percent and the Visayas' 71.88 percent. 

 

This is a problem, as “demand for power in Mindanao has continuously spiked through the years with rapid urbanization and increased industrialization,” the PIDS said in a statement. 

 

According to Navarro's study, consolidated forecasts show annual average electricity demand growth of 4.28 percent in Mindanao in 2010 to 2019, way above the national rate of 3.63 percent for the period.

 

Mindanao’s peak demand, meanwhile, could reach 1,428  megawatts (MW) this year and 1, 823 MW by 2019. 

 

“To meet peak demand and, at the same time, maintain security and reliability of the power grid, generation capacity must not only correspond to peak demand but also provide for other ancillary services,” PIDS said. 

 

The think-tank noted that a reserve margin of at least 21 percent of peak demand should be maintained, while total generation capacity consequently should be 1,728 MW in 2013 and 2,206 MW in 2019.

 

“However, the dependable capacity in Mindanao is now only 1,616 MW... [meaning] the power system could run a reserve shortfall of 112 MW for this year—a clear sign that last year’s power crisis may happen again,” PIDS said.  

 

“Mindanao’s generating capacity is also heavily dependent on hydropower which has become unreliable in the face of worsening deforestation of watersheds and siltation of river systems,” it added. 

 

Of the total 1,616 MW dependable generation capacity in Mindanao, 1,038 MW come from hydropower plants such as the Agus and Pulangui plants, which suffer poor state and rely heavily on favorable weather. 

 

The study said the energy gap can only be filled in 2015 when a new coal power plant in Sarangani would already have been built to supply additional 105 MW. 

 

In her study, Navarro urged the DOE to implement short-term solutions for demand peaks in the summers this year and the next, like the rehabilitation of the Agus and Palangui hydropower plants and the promotion of interruptible load program for large consumers in the region. 

 

For the long term, she recommended the implementation of demand-side management programs, the interconnection of the Visayas and Mindanao grids, coming up with a definitive decision on the privatization of Agus and Palangui plants, and implementation of reforestation and watershed management programs, among others.

 

Aggressive information, education, and communication campaign on the power situation and power outlook in Mindanao should also be undertaken, Adoracion noted.  

 

Energy Department officials could not reached as of posting time. — RSJ, GMA News