Mamasapano clash raises uncertainty for investments in Bangsamoro area, says NEDA chief

The bloody clash in Mamasapano, Maguindanao could raise uncertainty in future investments in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao unless it is resolved quickly, the country's chief economist said.

 

For now, there is no significant impact on investment but the private sector will need closure on the incident, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said during the release of gross domestic product (GDP) data in Makati City on Thursday.

 

"It depends how it will be resolved. And I think they should be able to resolve... this will raise uncertainty. Any uncertainty, and even just perception of risk, is bad for business, bad for confidence," he said.

 

Balisacan, who is also the director general of the National Economic and Development Authority, said the whole region of Mindanao has huge potential  for business.

 

"Mindanao is the best place for this country for agribusiness. It's potential for tourism is also very high, even for industry and they have a lot of minerals there too," he said.

 

"Mindanao can be a food basket because it's highly productive land, less dense in terms of population. Climate, soil is really great for agriculture," he added.

 

But as of last year, Mindanao only accounts for 14 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), which still largely comes from Luzon.

 

Philippine GDP in the fourth quarter clocked in at 6.9 percent, pushing the full-year average to 6.1 percent, with the country maintaining its position as the fastest growing economy in Asia except for China. 

 

"I am certain that that region can grow much faster than the rest of the country if we can secure peace there," Balisacan said.

 

The NEDA is pushing to make the passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) a top priority for government.

 

But after the deadly clash between Moro rebels and Philippine National Police's elite Special Action Force left at least 44 police officers dead, both houses of Congress suspended hearings related to the BBL.

 

Senators Alan Peter Cayetano and JV Ejercito have withdrawn their support for the proposed law, which aims to end the decades-old conflict in Mindanao by creating the Bangsamoro political entity to replace the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.

 

Bangsamoro as growth driver

 

New investments in the Bangsamoro area are one of the drivers for the Philippine economy this year, Ateneo de Manila University Economics Professor Cielito Habito said during the Ayala- University of the Philippines School of Economics (UPSE) Economic Forum in Makati City.

 

"New investments are expected yet... if we consumate the peace agreement through the Bangasamoro Basic Law," he said.

 

"We all know there's a setback right now. We hope it's only a temporary setback," he added.

 

The Makati Business Club (MBC), for its part, supports calls for a thorough investigation by both government and the MILF and for the findings to be reported out with urgency "so that the truth prevails rather than all the speculation and usual finger pointing, executive director Peter Perfecto told GMA News Online via text.

 

"This incident must not derail the peace agreement with the MILF, but instead strengthen our resolve for peace," he said.

 

Investors on wait-and-see mode 

 

However, Perfecto said the extent of the impact on business sentiment will be "best gauged after a full report is made based on a credible investigation."

 

"The impact will mainly be on business opportunities in specific Mindanao areas and communities," he said.

 

In a separate text message, Deloitte Philippines CEO Greg Navarro aired the same view that investors will keep a close watch on events that will unfold after the report is out.

 

"Maybe some prospective investors in the Bangsamoro area may adopt wait-and-see attitude as we try to get back on track of the peace process," he noted. — JDS/JST, GMA News