Brownouts possible in Luzon despite higher ILP capacity – Energy chief

(Updated 9:33 p.m.) The capacity committed by commercial and industrial consumers to the interruptible load program (ILP) has expanded, but is not enough to spare the Luzon grid from brownouts if a power plant bogs down during the hottest season of the year, the Energy chief said Monday.

 

The supply-demand situation during the summer months is still close to projection, Energy Secretary Carlos Jericho Petilla told GMA News Online via text message.

 

The demand for electricity, now at 7,500 megawatts (MW), is expected to surge to 9,100 MW in May, the hottest month of the year, the Cabinet official noted.

 

"The only thing we really cannot control and predict is forced outages," Petilla said. "Although we allotted allowance for forced outage based on 2014 data, we simply cannot predict if actual forced outage will be higher or lower." 

 

Tight supply is expected during the summer months, given the higher demand during the season that coincides with the month-long maintenance shutdown of the Malampaya gas line and the scheduled shutdowns of other power plants.

 

To lessen the severity of the power crisis, the DOE established the ILP to ease the strain on the grid by having some commercial and industrial customers produce their own electricity.

 

However, Petilla said the number of companies joining the ILP has reached a plateau. "We hope to be able to maximize the use of ILP, which is voluntary in nature," he said.

 

As of the last count, the program has 898 MW of de-loading capacity, Manila Electric Company (Meralco) Utility Economics head Larry Fernandez told GMA News Online.

 

"We don't have a target, as we will continue to invite, accept additional participants," he said.

 

In November 2014, Meralco president Oscar Reyes said the distribution utility is targeting about a fifth of the estimated 2,600-MW capacity of private gensets.

 

The Meralco franchise area covers 5.5 million commercial and residential customers in Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Rizal, and some parts of Batangas, Laguna, and Quezon.

 

However, DOE Director Mylene Capongcol said the ILP schedule of participants requires a 24-hour notice before capacity can actually be deployed.

 

"We cannot count on them to operate simultaneously. They have to be scheduled a day ahead," she said.

 

During a dry run of the ILP on Feb. 18, 74 percent of 300 companies participated and generated 457 MW of additional supply.

 

This is still not enough if a power plant with a 647 MW capacity breaks down, according to a GMA News' "24 Oras" report on Monday.

 

"In cases where the deficiency is such that we cannot cover with ILP and energy efficiency programs, then we will be forced to implement manual load dropping," Fernandez said in the report.

 

Apart from the ILP, the Energy department is also pushing for energy-saving measures, like setting the temperature of air-conditioners to 25 degrees Celsius, Petilla said.

 

"The difference of 9,100 MW peak and 6,800 MW non-summer demand is basically due to cooling systems. Reducing consumption by 10 percent during summer can mean forgoing 230 MW of additional generating capacity... 20 percent can mean 460 MW and so on," he added. 

 

Last Friday, residents in some parts of Bulacan and Metro Manila experienced power outages for 30 minutes after the Sual 1 and Thermal Mobile plants both broke down at noon and the Calaca 2 plant broke down that night.
 

More than 900 Meralco customers were affected by the brownout.

 

"Nangyayari ang biglang panandaliang pagkawala ng kuryente kapag may mga planta na nawawala sa linya," Meralco spokeperson Joe Zaldarriaga said in the report.

 

Malacañang has said the Energy department will issue an advisory if the power supply situation in Luzon is already at critical level during the summer months, based on the scheduled shutdown of plants.

 

Since a number of power plants are expected to shut down, an increase in power rates is possible this month.– VS/JDS, GMA News