2015 jobless rate slowest since 2004; jobs optimism ‘high’ – SWS

A report from pollster Social Weather Stations (SWS) found that the full-year jobless average for 2015 was the lowest in 11 years, with optimism on job availability for the next 12 months seeing a major improvement.

With a jobless rate of 21.4% during 2015's last quarter, the SWS reported that 2015's average rate came to 21.9%. This was slower than 2014's average of 25.4% and the slowest since 2004's 15.8%.

The fourth-quarter poll also found that 45% of respondents believed the number of jobs available would rise in the next 12 months, 27% thought it would stay the same, and 16% said there would be fewer jobs.

Net optimism on job availability in the next 12 months, those expecting more jobs in the next 12 months minus those who see less, was thus at a "high" +29. During the 2015's third quarter, net optimism was at a “fair” +13.

According to the SWS a net optimism of +30 and above was “very high”, +20 to +29 was “high”, +10 to +19 was “fair”, +1 to +9 was “mediocre”, -9 to zero was “low”, and -10 and below was “very low”.

Definitions

The SWS explained that the 2015-fourth quarter poll defined joblessness as:

• resigned or left their old jobs voluntarily (9.6% or some 4.1 million adults, from the thrid quarter's 8.4%);
• were retrenched (8% or some 3.4 million, from the third quarter's 11.7%). Among those retrenched 5.2% did not have their contracts renewed, 1.6% were laid off, and 1.3% had their employers go out of  business;
• were first-time job-seekers (3.6% or some 1.5 million adults, the same as the third quarter).

The SWS’ definition of joblessness also differed from the government's definition. The SWS' respondents were at least 18 years old, while the Philippine Statistics Authority uses a 15-year-old limit. Furthermore, the SWS defined persons with jobs as those currently working, including unpaid family members.

Additionally, the SWS defined joblessness as those without a job and were looking for a job. Those not working and not looking for a job (such as housewives, students, the retired, the disabled) are not included.

The SWS' 2015-fourth quarter poll was taken from December 5 to 8 among 1,200 adult respondents, with a ±3% sampling error margins for national percentages. Results of the poll were posted on the Business World website. — DVM, GMA News