BSP says June inflation could hit 1.9%

Inflation could have accelerated to as high as 1.9% this month due to higher prices of meat, vegetables, and oil and the depreciation of the Philippine peso, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said Monday.

The central bank expects inflation to settle within the 1.1% to 1.9% range this month, following the 1.4% print in May which marked the fourth straight month of deceleration.

“Upward price pressures for the month are likely to be driven by the higher meat and vegetable prices, elevated oil prices, and the depreciation of the peso,” the BSP said in an emailed statement.

Data from the Department of Agriculture show that prices of pork picnic shoulder or kasim in Metro Manila markets averaged P394.37 per kilogram, hind leg or pigue at P390.56 per kilogram, and belly or liempo at P442.65 per kilogram as of June 27, 2025.

These compare with the P390.08 per kilogram for kasim, P388.52 per kilogram for pigue, and P439.39 per kilogram for liempo on May 31, 2025.

Oil prices also increased in the past weeks, with local gasoline pump prices up for the past six weeks, diesel for four, and kerosene for three. These have since normalized slightly, with a rollback set on Tuesday, July 1.

The Philippine peso, meanwhile, finished last Friday, June 27, at P56.57:$1, weaker than the P55.745:$1 close on May 30.

“These pressures, however, could be partially offset by lower prices of rice, fish, and fruits, as well as lower electricity rates,” the BSP said.

Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) earlier announced a rollback of 11 centavos per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for the June billing period, translating to a P22 decrease for a typical customer consuming 200 kWh.

“Going forward, the BSP remains committed to safeguarding price stability by ensuring that monetary policy settings are conducive to sustainable economic growth and employment,” the BSP said.

The inter-agency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) last week said it expects inflation to average 2.0% to 3.0% this year, within the target range of 2.0% to 4.0%.

In a separate commentary, Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Ltd. (HSBC) ASEAN economist Aris Dacanay said he expects June inflation to clock in at 1.5%.

“June inflation had a lot of moving parts — parts that moved in different directions,” he said, noting the higher prices of retail gas, and chicken, and the lower prices of electricity and rice.

“But with inflation still well below the BSP’s 2-4% target band, the BSP still has room to deepen its ongoing easing cycle,” he added.

The BSP earlier this month decided to cut key policy rates by 25 basis points, and hinted at at least one more 25-basis-point rate cut given the moderate inflation outlook. —AOL, GMA Integrated News