ADB maintains 5.6% growth forecast for PH in 2025

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained its economic growth outlook for the Philippines this year on the back of sustained domestic demand despite global trade uncertainties.

In the September 2025 edition of its flagship Asian Development Outlook (ADO), the ADB said it forecasts the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at 5.6% for 2025, maintained from the ADO July edition’s outlook. 

The multilateral lender said that “robust domestic demand amid subdued inflation will support Philippine economic growth this year and the next.”

“The Philippines’ growth outlook remains resilient amid a global environment of shifting trade and investment policies and heightened geopolitical uncertainties,” said ADB country director for the Philippines Andrew Jeffries. 

“Though these uncertainties pose increased risk, we see strong domestic demand anchoring growth, with sustained investments and an accommodative monetary policy supporting the economy’s expansion,” said Jeffries.

For 2026, the ADB said it sees the Philippine economy to grow at 5.7% — the same level as the country’s actual growth rate in 2024.

Nonetheless, the bank said the country is expected to remain a bright spot in Southeast Asia, “with the second highest GDP expansion in the region.”

Moreover, the ADB said it forecasts inflation to ease at 1.8% this year, before rising to 3% in 2026 to return to the government’s target range of 2% to 4%. 

The latest 2025 inflation forecast is lower from July’s 2.2%. 

Slower global commodity prices and muted food prices, in part due to the improved local supply of the country’s rice staple, will keep inflation low, according to the lender. 

The ADB said subdued inflation outlook will support an accommodative monetary policy.

However, it said that adverse weather conditions and climate shocks, with the country visited by at least 20 typhoons a year, could put pressure on commodity prices, the report also said. 

The ADB added that other downside risks to the growth outlook include external headwinds from heightened uncertainty, further shifts in global economic policies, and rising trade barriers, which could affect market sentiment and hinder economic growth. —KG, GMA Integrated News