AMRO downgrades PH economic growth outlook

Philippine economic growth is now expected to fall short of the forecasts earlier set by economic managers following the slowdown recorded in July to September amid the weather disturbances, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said Monday.

In its Annual Consultation Report on the Philippines, AMRO said it now expects the Philippine economy to grow 5.2% this year, a downgrade from the 5.6% growth outlook recorded in its Regional Economic Outlook in October, and below the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s (DBCC) 5.5% to 6.5% forecast.

“AMRO projects GDP growth of 5.2% in 2025 and 5.3% in 2026, moderating from 5.7% in 2024. Importantly, the Q3 slowdown appears more cyclical than structural. Growth should regain momentum once project suspensions are resolved and confidence stabilizes,” the report read.

Philippine economic growth clocked in at 4.0%, the slowest in four years since the 3.8% recorded in the first quarter of 2021 when the country implemented strict lockdown measures due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

AMRO also downgraded its growth forecast for 2026 to 5.3% from 5.5% earlier.

“Private consumption and exports face headwinds from external uncertainties due to the US tariff policy, while public investment will be dampened by flood control project controversies,” AMRO said in its report.

“Additionally, the US tariff impact on goods export would be negative and more pronounced in 2026, while in 2025, it will be partly offset by front-loaded export orders. However, the adverse effects on investments and exports would gradually phase out in H2,” it added. — RSJ, GMA Integrated News