PH power outlook for April to June 2026 manageable but fragile — ICSC

The Philippines is expected to have a sufficient power supply in the second quarter of 2026, but underlying weaknesses in the grid mean the outlook remains manageable but fragile, with risks of alerts and supply tightness persisting, particularly in the Visayas, a group said Tuesday.

Presenting the Philippine Power Sector Outlook for April to June 2026, Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) senior data analyst Charles Jason Diaz said conditions vary across island grids, with vulnerabilities driven by plant outages, delayed projects, and structural issues in the power system.

Visayas most vulnerable

Among the three major grids, the Visayas faces the highest risk, with possible yellow alerts in May despite support from power imports.

“Normal reserves can be maintained through imports, but a yellow alert would still be possible in the month of May,” Diaz said at a briefing on Tuesday in Quezon City.

The Visayas grid remains dependent on electricity imports from Luzon and Mindanao, as its local generation is insufficient to meet demand.

“If you look at the operating margins, [it is] negative—meaning the power plants within Visayas are not enough to meet demand (if you look at the operating margins, they are negative—meaning the power plants within Visayas are not enough to meet demand),” he explained.

Even with imports, reserves may fall below required levels during peak weeks.

Luzon: Stable but conditional

In Luzon, supply is expected to remain stable, but only if new power projects are delivered on time.

“We see that there will be adequate reserves throughout the second quarter… contingent on the timely delivery of committed capacities,” Diaz said.

Delays in these projects could push operating margins into yellow alert territory, especially during peak demand months such as May and June.

Mindanao, meanwhile, is projected to maintain normal reserves throughout the quarter, supported by strong generation capacity, particularly from hydropower.

“Hindi po masyadong bumababa yung kanyang operating margins (Its operating margins do not drop significantly),” Diaz said.

However, exports to other grids may need to be managed to ensure sufficient local reserves.

Rising temperatures

Rising temperatures this dry season are expected to drive up electricity demand in the Philippines, increasing pressure on the power grid and raising the risk of supply alerts.

Jephraim Manansala, ICSC chief data scientist, said higher temperatures typically lead to increased use of air-conditioning and cooling systems in households.

“As the weather gets hotter, the use of air-conditioning increases,” he said.

This, in turn, pushes electricity demand higher.

“Sa pagtaas ng electricity demand… nagkakaroon tayo ng mas mataas na grid stress sa ating sistema (As electricity demand increases, it leads to higher grid stress in the system),” Manansala explained.

He added that grid alerts in recent years have been caused in part by rising demand during the dry season.

Early warning signs

ICSC pointed to early signs of system vulnerability, citing a yellow alert raised in the Visayas on January 20—even during the cooler season when demand is typically lower.

The alert was triggered by a combination of scheduled maintenance outages, forced outages of coal plants, and reduced output from other facilities.

“This just goes to show that the vulnerabilities in our power system are structural, hindi lang po siya seasonal (This shows that the vulnerabilities in our power system are structural, not just seasonal),” Diaz said.

Outdated assumptions may overstate supply

The group also flagged concerns over official projections.

“This lack of current data increases the risk of unexpected supply shortages, kasi we are relying on outdated assumptions (This lack of current data increases the risk of unexpected supply shortages because we are relying on outdated assumptions),” Diaz said.

ICSC adjusted its outlook by removing delayed projects while incorporating new committed capacities.

It further noted that avoiding forced outages—particularly among baseload plants—remains critical to maintaining grid stability.

Diaz said that fewer outages in 2025 compared to 2024 contributed to the absence of grid alerts in Luzon last year.

“It’s actually possible na hindi tayo magkakaroon ng forced outages… it just depends on how we operate our system (It is actually possible that we will not experience forced outages… it just depends on how we operate our system),” he said.

Global developments may push costs higher

ICSC also warned that global developments—particularly tensions in the Middle East—could further affect electricity supply and prices.

“Hindi na lang tayo sa coal exposed… we are also exposed now [to] the global LNG market (We are no longer only exposed to coal… we are now also exposed to the global LNG market),” Diaz said.

Higher fuel costs could also discourage the operation of diesel peaking plants, potentially reducing available supply during critical periods.

Reducing risks

To reduce risks, ICSC urged investments in flexible energy sources such as hydropower, battery storage, and other fast-ramping technologies.

“We need more flexible generation to limit the cycling of baseload power plants,” Diaz said.

The group also called for grid modernization, including more granular monitoring of island-level conditions, particularly in the Visayas.

“Each island has its own specific situation… looking at each one can help determine the right interventions,” he added.

ICSC encouraged consumers to help ease pressure on the grid by shifting electricity use to off-peak hours and using energy-efficient appliances.

The group also promoted rooftop solar systems to boost supply and reduce dependence on imported fuels. —VBL, GMA Integrated News