EXPLAINER: Will a toll in the Strait of Hormuz push oil prices higher?

A proposal in Iran to impose a toll on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz is raising a key question: will this drive oil prices higher?

Iran’s parliamentary security committee has approved a plan to regulate traffic in the strait, including a toll system, stricter safety and environmental rules, and possible limits on ships linked to the United States and Israel.

Iranian state media said the move aims to assert control and formalize management of the route.

The waterway is one of the most critical arteries for global energy supply. It connects the Persian Gulf to international markets and carries exports from some of the world’s largest oil producers.

According to the International Energy Agency, around 20 million barrels of oil pass through the strait each day—equivalent to about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade.

Given this volume, even minor disruptions or added costs can influence global prices.

A toll does not automatically mean oil prices will spike. However, it adds another layer of pressure.

Shipping costs could rise as tankers pay to pass through, while geopolitical tensions linked to the move may drive up insurance costs or slow shipments. These factors tend to feed into global oil prices.

Markets are also highly sensitive to risk. Even the possibility of disruption in a key chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz can trigger price movements.

The proposal has drawn criticism from Marco Rubio, who called it illegal and warned it could disrupt global trade.

There are also reports that Donald Trump may be open to easing tensions with Iran, suggesting a possible diplomatic track.

For the Philippines, the implications are direct. The country relies heavily on imported fuel, meaning global price changes are quickly reflected in local pump prices.

Recent increases highlight the market’s sensitivity, with diesel rising by as much as P12.90 per liter, gasoline up to P2.90, and kerosene up to P2.40.

If costs tied to the Strait of Hormuz rise further, local fuel prices could climb again, with knock-on effects on transport fares and food prices.—Sherylin Untalan with research and information from GMA News Feed/MCG, GMA News