Fuel prices won't return to P61-level even after Middle East conflict —ex-DOE chief

Former Energy secretary Jericho Petilla on Tuesday said Filipinos should brace for a prolonged period of high fuel prices despite the possible end to the Middle East conflict, tax cuts, and government interventions.

“Fearless forecast: There is no more, huwag na kayong umasang babalik pa ng P61 ‘yan,” Petilla said in an interview during Unang Hirit's On Record.

(Fearless forecast: Don't expect it will go back to P61.)

“Ang diesel will be P100 or a little over P100, and then gasoline is a little under P100 kapag nag-normalize na lahat dahil maraming infrastructure na nasira sa ating mga refineries at mga oil extraction sa Middle East,” he added.’

(Diesel will be P100 or a little over P100, and then gasoline will be a little under P100 when everything normalizes because a lot of infrastructure has been damaged in our refineries and oil extraction in the Middle East.)

Petilla noted that the ongoing surge in oil prices is driven by external factors, including geopolitical tensions with no clear timeline for stabilization.

“There is no clear end in sight,” he said.

Due to this, Petilla said households should begin adjusting their fuel consumption and overall spending.

“It's a world crisis. Ang pinaka-importante sa lahat is, in any crisis, is to survive. At maraming sakripisyo ang daranasin natin kapag gusto natin mag-survive. But the most important thing is to survive,” he said.

(It's a world crisis. The most important thing, in any crisis, is to survive. And we will experience many sacrifices when we want to survive. But the most important thing is to survive.)

While the Philippine government is considering measures such as suspending some taxes or providing targeted subsidies, these interventions can only offer limited relief, according to Petilla.

He noted that removing fuel taxes, including excise tax and value-added tax (VAT), could reduce pump prices but would also result in substantial revenue losses.

This would potentially affect government programs and infrastructure spending, he added.

“There will be help from the government. Pero hindi kayang saluhin ng gobyerno ang pagbigay ng ayuda at ibalik sa P61. At P3 trillion yan, P3 trillion a year ang gagastusin kung ibabalik natin sa P61 habang bumibili tayo ng mahal,” he said.

(There will be help from the government. But the government cannot catch up through aid and return it to P61. And that's P3 trillion, P3 trillion a year will be spent if we return it to P61 while we buy expensive fuel.)

“And we cannot simply afford that right now. What we can do is curtail the demand. Demand management tayo ngayon (is what we should do now),” he added.—AOL, GMA News