How PH pump price movements compare with stakeholder projections

Fuel price forecasts continue to be a crucial guide for motorists as they time their next full tank. These advisories are usually released on Fridays, aiming to project how pump prices will move based on global oil trends and the peso.

Below is a look at the forecasts made by oil industry stakeholders, compared with the actual pump price adjustments from March 10, 2026 to April 13, 2026. Data for the previous weeks was not immediately available from the DOE.

Forecasts are made based on the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), the average daily price assessments of refined petroleum products traded at the regional hub. These are then averaged for the five days of trading per week, and then compared with the previous week.

This will then be the minimum change for the week, as local retailers will still have to take into account other factors such as freight or shipping costs, which are also passed on to consumers through pump price adjustments.

READ: Understanding how Philippine fuel pump prices are determined

Should the total for the current week be higher, this would reflect an increase in local pump prices. If the difference is negative, this would indicate a rollback.

The actual changes are implemented every Tuesday as part of the formula agreed upon by industry players and the Department of Energy (DOE) during the time of former Secretary Angelo Reyes.

To date, pump prices both local and global have been volatile due to the ongoing war in the Middle East between the United States and Iran.

US president Donald Trump agreed to a ceasefire with Iran, subject to Iran’s agreement to pause its blockade of oil and gas supplies through the strait.

The ceasefire came less than two hours before the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on 8 p.m. last Tuesday eastern time (9 a.m. on Wednesday, April 8, Philippine time), or have its power plans and bridges targeted.

Over the weekend, however, Trump said the US Navy would immediately blockade the Strait of Hormuz after talks with Tehran failed to reach a deal to end the war. — RSJ, GMA News