Oil dips but still above $100 a barrel; investors take heart from upbeat earnings

SINGAPORE/LONDON — Global stocks rose on Tuesday, taking some heart from a series of robust earnings, while simmering hostilities between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz kept the oil price well above $100 a barrel.

Traders also had their eyes on the yen after the Japanese currency briefly jumped in the previous session, stoking speculation of another round of intervention from Tokyo.

In Europe, the STOXX 600 rose 0.5%, lifted by brewer Anheuser-Busch ABI.BR, which beat forecasts with first-quarter results, and by shares in Italian lender Unicredit, which reported record quarterly profits.

The US and Iran launched new attacks in the Gulf on Monday as they wrestled for control over the Strait of Hormuz with dueling maritime blockades, not long after US President Donald Trump launched a new effort to get stranded tankers and other ships through the vital energy-trade chokepoint.

Maersk said the Alliance Fairfax, a US-flagged vehicle carrier operated by its Farrell Lines subsidiary, exited the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz accompanied by US military assets on Monday.

Stocks and other risk assets got some respite from a modest retreat in the oil price, which edged below Monday's high around $115 a barrel.

Still, the renewed hostilities jolted markets and served as a stark reminder that the war in the Middle East was far from over.

In oil markets, Brent crude futures fell 1.5% to $112.74 a barrel, having jumped in the previous session on heightened worries about supply disruption.

"Markets may find some relief today following President Trump’s overnight comments suggesting the conflict could continue for another two to three weeks. However, markets are likely to view this with considerable skepticism, given the recent escalation and the repeated extensions of projected timelines for ending hostilities since the conflict began," ING head of commodities strategy Warren Patterson said.

Data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed 83% of S&P 500 companies that have already reported have beaten EPS estimates and 78.2% of them have beaten revenue estimates. LSEG data shows earnings growth for the S&P 500 is now projected to top 18% in the first quarter, up from estimates of around 12.8% just a month ago.

Nasdaq futures rose 0.7% and S&P 500 futures were up 0.5%, suggesting a pickup from Monday's negative close.

"With no signs of slowing down, AI-driven spending will likely continue to do the heavy lifting for S&P 500 earnings growth, led by the technology sector," said Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial.

Yen intervention watch

The yen was last slightly weaker on the day, leaving the dollar up 0.3% at 157.736 JPY, after Monday's short-lived surge that saw the Japanese currency touch an intraday high of 155.69.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Monday spoke out against speculative trading in foreign exchange, leaving market participants on alert for further intervention after sources told Reuters Tokyo intervened to prop up its ailing currency on Thursday.

Abbas Keshvani, Asia Macro Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said authoriti.es could intervene again if dollar/yen continues to test 160, which they have historically defended, noting that in 2022, Tokyo "fired three volleys of intervention in a few weeks."

"We suspect intervention will merely act as a lid on USD/JPY, not a catalyst for protracted yen strength," he said.

In other currencies, the Australian dollar last traded 0.1% lower at $0.7161, after the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday raised rates for a third time this year in a widely expected move.

Elsewhere, spot gold rose 1% to $4,565 an ounce, above Monday's trough at $4,500, the lowest since March 31. — Reuters