IBPAP cuts 2028 IT-BPM revenue, jobs forecasts after roadmap review

The IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP) has revised its revenue and employment forecasts for 2028, following a midpoint review on its roadmap to reflect the ongoing realities of the industry.

According to IBPAP president and chief executive officer Jack Madrid, the industry now targets revenues to hit $50.5 billion by 2028 under the best-case scenario, lower than the $59 billion projection the group made in 2022. The group hit $40 billion in 2025.

“We need to review where we are and be honest about what we can achieve realistically, and those are the numbers today. I think it’s necessary to review our progress,” he told reporters in a briefing in Taguig City on Tuesday.

In terms of headcount, IBPAP expects to hit 2.14 million by 2028 under the best-case scenario and 1.85 million in the downside scenario, both lower than the 2.5 million projection it made in 2022. There were 1.9 million employees as of 2025.

“For years, our industry has measured success by how many people we could employ. The next chapter will increasingly be defined by the value every Digital Filipino Worker (DFW) creates. That is the shift from capacity to capability,” Madrid said.

“This outlook is ambitious, but achievable. Success will depend on how quickly we invest in talent, embrace AI responsibly, and deepen collaboration between industry, government, and academe,” he added.

He noted, however, that this will still depend on how the industry comes together and works with partners, including those in the government, both national and local government units (LGUs).

Madrid said heavy lifting is being done by global capability centers (GCCs), with the country hosting some 200 centers, and growing by 10 annually. The biggest in the country, JPMorgan Chase, now employs an estimated 21,000.

“This is, I think, the kind of evolution we want to see — higher revenue per employee,” he said.

For the downside scenario, which takes into account policy-related issues that could discourage investors, the depth of local talent, quality of infrastructure, and the challenges in ease of doing business in the country, the IBPAP said it expects revenues of $43.3 billion in 2028.

Among the risks Madrid noted are artificial intelligence (AI), buyer behavior, and global competition as countries are now adapting to the advancement of technology, while businesses are taking more time to make business decisions.

In terms of policies, IBPAP chief operating officer Celeste Ilagan said the group continues to push for improvements to the country’s ease of doing business (EODB), as the group has been receiving questions from headquarters regarding the different processes for different local government units (LGUs), despite being in the same country.

She also noted insider cybercrime, as there are a few employees who are committing fraudulent acts insider their operations, that could imperil accounts in the Philippines and cause the exit of major clients.

“A lot of our efforts now are directed towards engaging the DOJ (Department of Justice) and also the law enforcement agencies — PNP (Philippine National Police), NBI (National Bureau of Investigation),” she said in the same briefing.—AOL, GMA News