PH, Japan to revisit 'The Big One' study in 2026 —PHIVOLCS

The Philippine and Japanese governments are set to revisit a 2004 study on the impact of the so-called “The Big One,” a 7.2-magnitude earthquake or stronger in Metro Manila.

“Next year we will revisit the study,” Department of Science and Technology-Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (DOST-PHIVOLCS) Director Teresito Bacolcol said at the Saturday News Forum in Quezon City.

“In fact there are already ongoing talks with JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency), OCD (Office of Civil Defense), DOST, and of course our office,” Bacolcol said.

The 2004 “Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metro Manila” by JICA, PHIVOLCS, and the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) outlines the likely scenario if a 7.2-magnitude earthquake strikes the National Capital Region.

The study showed that in Metro Manila alone, which at the time of the study had a population of 9,932,560, the casualty count could be as high as 33,500 fatalities and 113,600 injured.

“We will revisit the study. Of course, that’s already 20 years old and a lot has already happened… The population of Metro Manila grew and there are a lot of new buildings so we really need to revisit the study,” Bacolcol said.

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that the total population of NCR stood at 14,001,751, based on the 2024 Census of Population. 

Bacolcol said the new study is expected to be completed within two years, “but definitely it will start next year.”

Fears about “The Big One” resurfaced after a 6.9-magnitude earthquake rocked Cebu and other areas in the Visayas, which was caused by a fault that has been dormant for over 400 years.

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—KG, GMA Integrated News