PAGASA: El Niño shows signs of weakening, La Niña Watch to begin

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Thursday said they have observed signs of a weakening trend of the El Niño phenomenon across the tropical Pacific Ocean.

In an advisory, the state weather bureau said the season is anticipated to persist until March-April-May 2024, with a 74% chance of a transition to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions in April-May-June 2024.

“With this development, the PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System is now raised to La Niña Watch,” the advisory said.

The agency added the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions remain high, causing possible dry spells and droughts in several areas of the country within the first quarter of the year.

At an earlier press conference, PAGASA said the peak of El Niño may bring drought to over 40 provinces in March or April.

“Dito nakikita pa rin po natin na March, April pa rin yung peak noong impact ng El Niño. Around 40 provinces iyong makakaranas po ng meteorological drought conditions,” PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Solis said.

(We can see March and April as the peak months of El Niño impact. Around 40 provinces will experience meteorological drought conditions.)

Some areas in Mindanao experienced near normal to above normal levels of rainfall while the rest of the country was subjected to below normal or way below normal rainfall for February this year.

Meanwhile, the weakening of the Northeast Monsoon and the near absence of tropical cyclones should be expected as the La Niña Watch begins in March.

Most of the country may still experience way below normal to below normal rainfall, while Metro Manila may see temperatures of 20°C to 36.0°C.

The Makabayan Bloc in the House of Representatives, on Thursday, filed a resolution to look into the effects of El Niño on the country’s agricultural sector following PAGASA’s El Niño Advisory 7 stating that the El Niño may persist until May.

As of Thursday, the phenomenon has already caused P1,236,853,305 worth of agricultural damage as per the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).

A total of 29,409 farmers and fishermen, as well as 26,731 hectares of crops, were also affected, while Bulalacao, Oriental Mindoro has declared a state of calamity due to severe water shortage.—RF, GMA Integrated News